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← All portfolios

Eras of financial history and how portfolios went through them

From the 1920s boom to today. For every era — what happened, what worked, what failed, and how each of the 60 models did (only models that existed in our data back then).

Roaring Twenties boom 1926-01 – 1929-08 Regime

The US economy expanded on the back of mass production, electrification, cars and radio. Stock prices rose sharply, helped by margin lending and investment trusts, while consumer prices were roughly stable and the gold standard anchored the currency. The period ended with the market peak in late summer 1929.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold has an official fixed price ($20.67/oz) throughout, so it behaves as cash-like; EM, TIPS, REIT, intl_dev and commodities have no standard index for this era: check assets_meta.json before using them.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Siegel: all US stocks+153.7 %+34.2 %−5.9 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+153.7 %+34.2 %−5.9 %
Second-Grader's+135.8 %+31.1 %−5.3 %
Target Retirement 2050+135.8 %+31.1 %−5.3 %
Buffett 90/10+135.7 %+31.1 %−5.3 %
CPP Canada 85/15+127.3 %+29.6 %−5.0 %
Ramsey four funds+125.7 %+29.3 %−8.2 %
Merriman two funds+124.8 %+29.1 %−10.3 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+119.0 %+28.1 %−5.6 %
NZ Super 80/20+118.9 %+28.1 %−4.7 %
Ferri Core Four+117.8 %+27.9 %−4.7 %
Four Corners+117.3 %+27.8 %−9.6 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+115.6 %+27.4 %−4.9 %
Collins 75/25+110.8 %+26.5 %−4.4 %
Graham 75/25+110.8 %+26.5 %−4.4 %
Target Retirement 2040+110.8 %+26.5 %−4.4 %
Norway fund 70/30+100.3 %+24.5 %−4.2 %
Swensen (Yale model)+100.3 %+24.5 %−4.1 %
Burns Margarita+97.7 %+24.0 %−3.9 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+97.3 %+23.9 %−4.0 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+95.1 %+23.5 %−3.7 %
Vanguard Wellington+95.1 %+23.5 %−3.7 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+94.2 %+23.3 %−5.6 %
Talmud thirds+93.6 %+23.2 %−4.0 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+91.9 %+22.9 %−5.0 %
iShares AOR 60/40+90.0 %+22.5 %−3.6 %
CalPERS+88.2 %+22.1 %−4.5 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+87.6 %+22.0 %−3.4 %
Target Retirement 2030+87.6 %+22.0 %−3.4 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+87.4 %+21.9 %−4.8 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+85.9 %+21.6 %−3.6 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+82.2 %+20.8 %−4.2 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+79.8 %+20.4 %−4.1 %
Coward's Portfolio+77.9 %+19.9 %−4.4 %
Global market portfolio+75.1 %+19.4 %−3.5 %
Coffeehouse+74.9 %+19.3 %−4.6 %
Couch Potato 50/50+73.2 %+19.0 %−2.8 %
Graham 50/50+73.2 %+19.0 %−2.8 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+73.2 %+19.0 %−2.8 %
Bengen for retirees+67.7 %+17.7 %−4.1 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+59.6 %+15.9 %−2.3 %
Vanguard Wellesley+53.9 %+14.6 %−2.1 %
Target Retirement Income+46.8 %+12.9 %−1.5 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+41.2 %+11.5 %−2.4 %
Graham 25/75+40.6 %+11.4 %−1.2 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+34.2 %+9.7 %−1.0 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+18.3 %+5.5 %−0.7 %

Wall Street crash and Great Contraction 1929-09 – 1932-07 Stress window

Stocks collapsed from the September 1929 peak, with the October 1929 crash followed by a long slide to the July 1932 low. Banking panics, deflation and gold-standard constraints deepened the contraction. Unemployment soared and output fell by roughly a quarter or more according to standard estimates.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold is pegged and privately held gold was restricted in 1933; other classes (intl_dev, em, reit, tips, commodities) lack standard indices.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Taleb barbell 90/10−7.1 %−2.5 %−10.8 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−17.2 %−6.3 %−21.4 %
Graham 25/75−23.1 %−8.6 %−27.7 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−27.0 %−10.2 %−34.6 %
Target Retirement Income−28.6 %−10.9 %−33.6 %
Vanguard Wellesley−35.3 %−13.9 %−43.5 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−39.6 %−15.9 %−45.4 %
Couch Potato 50/50−47.6 %−19.8 %−53.5 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−47.6 %−19.8 %−53.5 %
Graham 50/50−47.6 %−19.8 %−53.5 %
Global market portfolio−51.4 %−21.9 %−58.3 %
Bengen for retirees−51.8 %−22.1 %−58.8 %
Coffeehouse−54.9 %−23.9 %−64.6 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−55.2 %−24.1 %−63.5 %
Target Retirement 2030−55.4 %−24.2 %−61.5 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−55.4 %−24.2 %−61.5 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−55.4 %−24.2 %−61.7 %
Coward's Portfolio−55.5 %−24.3 %−64.3 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−56.7 %−25.0 %−64.6 %
iShares AOR 60/40−56.9 %−25.0 %−63.1 %
Vanguard Wellington−59.0 %−26.3 %−65.1 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−59.0 %−26.3 %−65.1 %
CalPERS−60.1 %−27.0 %−68.1 %
Burns Margarita−60.1 %−27.0 %−66.3 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−60.6 %−27.3 %−68.0 %
Talmud thirds−60.7 %−27.4 %−69.9 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−61.5 %−27.9 %−69.5 %
Swensen (Yale model)−62.2 %−28.3 %−70.2 %
Norway fund 70/30−62.3 %−28.4 %−68.6 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−62.5 %−28.5 %−71.0 %
Collins 75/25−65.4 %−30.5 %−71.6 %
Graham 75/25−65.4 %−30.5 %−71.6 %
Target Retirement 2040−65.4 %−30.5 %−71.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−66.1 %−31.0 %−72.8 %
Ferri Core Four−68.3 %−32.5 %−74.9 %
NZ Super 80/20−68.3 %−32.6 %−74.4 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−68.4 %−32.6 %−74.6 %
CPP Canada 85/15−71.0 %−34.6 %−77.0 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−71.2 %−34.8 %−77.4 %
Second-Grader's−73.6 %−36.6 %−79.4 %
Target Retirement 2050−73.6 %−36.6 %−79.4 %
Buffett 90/10−73.7 %−36.7 %−79.5 %
Siegel: all US stocks−78.2 %−40.6 %−83.7 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−78.2 %−40.6 %−83.7 %
Merriman two funds−78.3 %−40.7 %−85.6 %
Ramsey four funds−78.9 %−41.3 %−84.7 %
Four Corners−79.0 %−41.5 %−86.7 %

New Deal recovery 1932-08 – 1937-02 Regime

After the 1932 low, stocks rebounded violently in 1933 as the banking system was closed and reorganised, the dollar was taken off gold and later devalued. Output grew rapidly from a very low base, though unemployment stayed very high. Prices stopped falling and small caps and cyclicals led the recovery.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold is pegged/restricted for US investors; intl_dev, em, reit, tips, commodities lack standard indices.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Four Corners+471.4 %+46.3 %−46.5 %
Merriman two funds+448.0 %+44.9 %−46.8 %
Ramsey four funds+402.7 %+42.2 %−36.2 %
Siegel: all US stocks+268.7 %+32.9 %−28.9 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+268.7 %+32.9 %−28.9 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+254.0 %+31.8 %−27.3 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+245.8 %+31.1 %−28.1 %
Target Retirement 2050+234.2 %+30.1 %−26.1 %
Second-Grader's+234.2 %+30.1 %−26.1 %
Buffett 90/10+228.8 %+29.7 %−26.3 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+224.9 %+29.3 %−27.9 %
CPP Canada 85/15+218.0 %+28.7 %−24.6 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+216.5 %+28.6 %−24.3 %
Coffeehouse+213.2 %+28.3 %−29.8 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+212.9 %+28.3 %−31.6 %
Ferri Core Four+208.5 %+27.9 %−25.5 %
CalPERS+207.2 %+27.7 %−26.1 %
NZ Super 80/20+202.3 %+27.3 %−23.1 %
Swensen (Yale model)+187.8 %+25.9 %−25.9 %
Target Retirement 2040+187.3 %+25.9 %−21.6 %
Collins 75/25+187.3 %+25.9 %−21.6 %
Graham 75/25+187.3 %+25.9 %−21.6 %
Bengen for retirees+185.4 %+25.7 %−21.2 %
Norway fund 70/30+183.4 %+25.5 %−21.1 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+179.7 %+25.2 %−25.7 %
Coward's Portfolio+176.6 %+24.9 %−28.9 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+173.1 %+24.5 %−23.3 %
Talmud thirds+172.6 %+24.5 %−29.4 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+172.6 %+24.5 %−25.6 %
Burns Margarita+163.6 %+23.5 %−19.1 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+159.0 %+23.1 %−18.6 %
Vanguard Wellington+159.0 %+23.1 %−18.6 %
Global market portfolio+154.1 %+22.6 %−18.8 %
iShares AOR 60/40+153.4 %+22.5 %−17.9 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+153.0 %+22.5 %−17.8 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+145.7 %+21.7 %−17.0 %
Target Retirement 2030+145.7 %+21.7 %−17.0 %
Couch Potato 50/50+120.7 %+18.8 %−13.9 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+120.7 %+18.8 %−13.9 %
Graham 50/50+120.7 %+18.8 %−13.9 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+107.8 %+17.3 %−17.0 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+105.1 %+17.0 %−11.7 %
Vanguard Wellesley+103.1 %+16.7 %−15.5 %
Target Retirement Income+76.4 %+13.2 %−7.3 %
Graham 25/75+66.4 %+11.8 %−5.9 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+58.7 %+10.6 %−5.0 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+31.8 %+6.2 %−6.4 %

Recession within the Depression 1937-03 – 1938-03 Stress window

A premature tightening of fiscal and monetary policy (higher reserve requirements, gold sterilisation, new payroll taxes, spending cuts) coincided with a sharp relapse. Industrial production and employment fell steeply and stocks lost roughly half their value in about a year. Policy then eased again and the recovery resumed.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold is pegged at $35; other classes have no standard index here.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Taleb barbell 90/10−7.9 %−7.3 %−7.9 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−8.4 %−7.7 %−8.6 %
Graham 25/75−11.1 %−10.3 %−11.2 %
Target Retirement Income−14.0 %−13.0 %−14.1 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−18.1 %−16.9 %−18.7 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−20.7 %−19.3 %−20.8 %
Vanguard Wellesley−21.3 %−19.9 %−22.3 %
Couch Potato 50/50−25.1 %−23.4 %−25.1 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−25.1 %−23.4 %−25.1 %
Graham 50/50−25.1 %−23.4 %−25.1 %
Global market portfolio−29.9 %−28.0 %−30.1 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−30.3 %−28.3 %−30.3 %
Target Retirement 2030−30.3 %−28.3 %−30.3 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−30.9 %−28.9 %−30.9 %
iShares AOR 60/40−31.5 %−29.5 %−31.5 %
Bengen for retirees−32.3 %−30.2 %−32.3 %
Vanguard Wellington−32.9 %−30.8 %−32.9 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−32.9 %−30.8 %−32.9 %
Burns Margarita−33.7 %−31.6 %−33.7 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−35.4 %−33.2 %−36.1 %
Norway fund 70/30−36.1 %−33.9 %−36.1 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−36.3 %−34.0 %−36.8 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−36.4 %−34.2 %−36.9 %
Coward's Portfolio−37.6 %−35.3 %−38.4 %
Collins 75/25−37.8 %−35.5 %−37.8 %
Graham 75/25−37.8 %−35.5 %−37.8 %
Target Retirement 2040−37.8 %−35.5 %−37.8 %
Coffeehouse−38.0 %−35.7 %−39.1 %
CalPERS−38.4 %−36.1 %−39.0 %
Swensen (Yale model)−38.7 %−36.4 %−39.5 %
NZ Super 80/20−40.3 %−37.8 %−40.3 %
Talmud thirds−40.5 %−38.0 %−41.7 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−40.5 %−38.1 %−41.0 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−41.2 %−38.7 %−41.2 %
Ferri Core Four−41.5 %−39.1 %−41.8 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−42.4 %−39.9 %−43.2 %
CPP Canada 85/15−42.6 %−40.1 %−42.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−43.2 %−40.7 %−43.2 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−44.8 %−42.2 %−44.8 %
Second-Grader's−44.9 %−42.4 %−44.9 %
Target Retirement 2050−44.9 %−42.4 %−44.9 %
Buffett 90/10−45.3 %−42.7 %−45.3 %
Siegel: all US stocks−49.5 %−46.7 %−49.5 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−49.5 %−46.7 %−49.5 %
Ramsey four funds−55.5 %−52.7 %−55.5 %
Merriman two funds−59.0 %−56.1 %−59.7 %
Four Corners−61.3 %−58.4 %−62.2 %

Rearmament and World War II 1938-04 – 1945-09 Regime

The economy recovered on rearmament and then full wartime mobilisation. Stocks bottomed in 1942 and rose through the war. The Fed pegged interest rates (short-term bills near 3/8 percent and a cap on long Treasury yields), and wage and price controls suppressed measured inflation, so bonds and cash earned very low but steady returns.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: No meaningful intl_dev/em/reit/tips/commodities series; gold is pegged at $35.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Four Corners+427.0 %+24.8 %−32.3 %
Merriman two funds+399.9 %+23.9 %−32.0 %
Ramsey four funds+304.8 %+20.5 %−26.3 %
Siegel: all US stocks+205.8 %+16.1 %−28.1 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+205.8 %+16.1 %−28.1 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+195.2 %+15.5 %−23.2 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+187.7 %+15.1 %−20.5 %
Coffeehouse+187.5 %+15.1 %−18.3 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+184.2 %+14.9 %−18.2 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+183.6 %+14.9 %−20.6 %
Second-Grader's+180.7 %+14.8 %−25.3 %
Target Retirement 2050+180.7 %+14.8 %−25.3 %
Buffett 90/10+176.2 %+14.5 %−25.5 %
CalPERS+171.0 %+14.2 %−17.1 %
CPP Canada 85/15+168.8 %+14.1 %−24.0 %
Ferri Core Four+167.9 %+14.0 %−21.8 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+167.8 %+14.0 %−22.3 %
Swensen (Yale model)+160.6 %+13.6 %−17.9 %
NZ Super 80/20+157.4 %+13.4 %−22.6 %
Talmud thirds+155.9 %+13.3 %−19.5 %
Coward's Portfolio+152.5 %+13.1 %−18.2 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+151.8 %+13.1 %−16.3 %
Collins 75/25+146.3 %+12.8 %−21.2 %
Graham 75/25+146.3 %+12.8 %−21.2 %
Target Retirement 2040+146.3 %+12.8 %−21.2 %
Bengen for retirees+144.2 %+12.6 %−14.2 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+143.5 %+12.6 %−17.9 %
Norway fund 70/30+143.4 %+12.6 %−19.6 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+143.4 %+12.6 %−16.6 %
Burns Margarita+128.8 %+11.7 %−18.9 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+125.4 %+11.4 %−18.4 %
Vanguard Wellington+125.4 %+11.4 %−18.4 %
Global market portfolio+123.8 %+11.3 %−14.2 %
iShares AOR 60/40+121.2 %+11.2 %−17.5 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+120.9 %+11.1 %−16.8 %
Target Retirement 2030+115.5 %+10.8 %−17.0 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+115.5 %+10.8 %−17.0 %
Couch Potato 50/50+96.8 %+9.4 %−14.0 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+96.8 %+9.4 %−14.0 %
Graham 50/50+96.8 %+9.4 %−14.0 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+94.8 %+9.3 %−8.4 %
Vanguard Wellesley+90.7 %+9.0 %−9.1 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+85.0 %+8.5 %−11.2 %
Target Retirement Income+63.4 %+6.8 %−8.0 %
Graham 25/75+55.8 %+6.1 %−6.6 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+49.8 %+5.5 %−5.4 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+25.0 %+3.0 %−3.4 %

Postwar expansion 1945-10 – 1965-12 Regime

The US emerged as the dominant economy under Bretton Woods. After a brief postwar inflation spike in 1946-47, prices were stable for most of the period, interest rates drifted up from very low levels, and stocks delivered strong returns across several expansions. The 1951 Accord freed the Fed from pegging bond yields.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold is pegged at $35 and could not be held by US citizens until 1975; intl_dev/em/reit/tips/commodities lack standard series for much of this era.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Four Corners+1697.2 %+15.3 %−29.9 %
Merriman two funds+1652.2 %+15.2 %−29.0 %
Ramsey four funds+1256.8 %+13.7 %−28.7 %
Siegel: all US stocks+1212.9 %+13.6 %−24.3 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+1212.9 %+13.6 %−24.3 %
Target Retirement 2050+994.7 %+12.5 %−22.0 %
Second-Grader's+994.7 %+12.5 %−22.0 %
Buffett 90/10+985.2 %+12.5 %−22.1 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+912.6 %+12.1 %−22.4 %
CPP Canada 85/15+897.4 %+12.0 %−20.9 %
Ferri Core Four+860.4 %+11.8 %−19.9 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+813.5 %+11.5 %−20.4 %
NZ Super 80/20+807.2 %+11.5 %−19.7 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+783.9 %+11.4 %−19.8 %
Talmud thirds+768.9 %+11.3 %−17.5 %
Swensen (Yale model)+763.8 %+11.2 %−17.7 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+733.5 %+11.0 %−22.0 %
Collins 75/25+723.9 %+11.0 %−18.6 %
Graham 75/25+723.9 %+11.0 %−18.6 %
Target Retirement 2040+723.9 %+11.0 %−18.6 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+717.6 %+10.9 %−19.7 %
CalPERS+689.5 %+10.7 %−18.4 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+676.8 %+10.7 %−17.0 %
Coffeehouse+670.3 %+10.6 %−17.7 %
Norway fund 70/30+651.6 %+10.5 %−17.9 %
Coward's Portfolio+614.3 %+10.2 %−17.4 %
Burns Margarita+599.1 %+10.1 %−16.6 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+597.6 %+10.1 %−16.7 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+595.1 %+10.0 %−17.2 %
Vanguard Wellington+576.1 %+9.9 %−16.2 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+576.1 %+9.9 %−16.2 %
iShares AOR 60/40+537.4 %+9.6 %−15.6 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+514.1 %+9.4 %−15.4 %
Target Retirement 2030+510.9 %+9.3 %−14.9 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+510.9 %+9.3 %−14.9 %
Global market portfolio+474.1 %+9.0 %−14.8 %
Bengen for retirees+469.8 %+9.0 %−16.8 %
Couch Potato 50/50+396.1 %+8.2 %−12.4 %
Graham 50/50+396.1 %+8.2 %−12.4 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+396.1 %+8.2 %−12.4 %
Vanguard Wellesley+330.9 %+7.5 %−9.4 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+311.0 %+7.2 %−10.5 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+260.2 %+6.5 %−9.0 %
Target Retirement Income+219.9 %+5.9 %−7.2 %
Graham 25/75+185.3 %+5.3 %−5.8 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+154.5 %+4.7 %−4.6 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+95.0 %+3.4 %−4.1 %

Golden age of the 1950s 1950-01 – 1959-12 Regime

A decade of strong US growth, low inflation (apart from a Korean War bump in 1950-51), rising household wealth and a long stock bull market that began in 1949. Interest rates rose gradually after the Accord. It is the classic example of a calm regime in which plain equities beat everything else.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: As for the broader postwar era: gold pegged, other classes largely lack data.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Four Corners+522.2 %+20.1 %−19.9 %
Merriman two funds+488.6 %+19.4 %−18.2 %
Ramsey four funds+449.3 %+18.6 %−16.6 %
Siegel: all US stocks+438.8 %+18.3 %−14.9 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+438.8 %+18.3 %−14.9 %
Buffett 90/10+372.9 %+16.8 %−13.4 %
Target Retirement 2050+370.2 %+16.7 %−12.8 %
Second-Grader's+370.2 %+16.7 %−12.8 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+342.1 %+16.0 %−12.2 %
CPP Canada 85/15+338.5 %+15.9 %−11.9 %
Ferri Core Four+323.3 %+15.5 %−11.6 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+310.1 %+15.2 %−11.4 %
NZ Super 80/20+308.5 %+15.1 %−11.2 %
Talmud thirds+300.1 %+14.9 %−12.5 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+298.7 %+14.8 %−12.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+293.0 %+14.7 %−12.1 %
Swensen (Yale model)+287.1 %+14.5 %−10.9 %
Collins 75/25+280.2 %+14.3 %−10.6 %
Graham 75/25+280.2 %+14.3 %−10.6 %
Target Retirement 2040+280.2 %+14.3 %−10.6 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+274.5 %+14.1 %−10.9 %
CalPERS+262.4 %+13.7 %−10.7 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+262.2 %+13.7 %−10.2 %
Norway fund 70/30+254.6 %+13.5 %−10.1 %
Coffeehouse+244.9 %+13.2 %−10.4 %
Coward's Portfolio+244.5 %+13.2 %−10.8 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+239.4 %+13.0 %−9.8 %
Burns Margarita+236.4 %+12.9 %−9.6 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+231.3 %+12.7 %−9.4 %
Vanguard Wellington+228.2 %+12.6 %−9.4 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+228.2 %+12.6 %−9.4 %
iShares AOR 60/40+214.0 %+12.1 %−9.1 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+205.2 %+11.8 %−8.9 %
Target Retirement 2030+204.3 %+11.8 %−8.8 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+204.3 %+11.8 %−8.8 %
Global market portfolio+188.9 %+11.2 %−8.6 %
Bengen for retirees+188.6 %+11.2 %−8.8 %
Couch Potato 50/50+160.8 %+10.1 %−7.6 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+160.8 %+10.1 %−7.6 %
Graham 50/50+160.8 %+10.1 %−7.6 %
Vanguard Wellesley+132.1 %+8.8 %−7.6 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+126.6 %+8.5 %−6.6 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+97.1 %+7.0 %−5.6 %
Target Retirement Income+88.5 %+6.5 %−5.5 %
Graham 25/75+73.2 %+5.6 %−5.1 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+59.1 %+4.8 %−4.6 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+45.0 %+3.8 %−1.0 %

Go-go years and nifty-fifty 1966-01 – 1968-12 Regime

Vietnam spending and the Great Society stimulated an overheated economy, and inflation began to creep up from the low 1960s levels. The stock market became speculative (the 'go-go' years, growth stocks and conglomerates), with a sharp but brief bear market in 1966 and a final peak in late 1968. The Bretton Woods gold system came under growing strain.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold is still fixed at $35 until 1971. intl_dev (MSCI EAFE) starts about 1970, so it is absent; em, tips and reit are absent.

All models in this era (47)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Four Corners+83.0 %+22.3 %−18.6 %
Merriman two funds+77.4 %+21.1 %−18.5 %
Ramsey four funds+67.0 %+18.6 %−17.7 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+51.2 %+14.8 %−12.9 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+44.6 %+13.1 %−11.4 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+43.6 %+12.8 %−11.9 %
Coffeehouse+42.9 %+12.6 %−11.3 %
Coward's Portfolio+41.8 %+12.4 %−9.8 %
Bengen for retirees+40.5 %+12.0 %−10.6 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+40.0 %+11.9 %−13.6 %
CalPERS+37.5 %+11.2 %−11.5 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+37.1 %+11.1 %−9.9 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+35.9 %+10.8 %−10.4 %
Siegel: all US stocks+34.0 %+10.2 %−15.5 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+34.0 %+10.2 %−15.5 %
Talmud thirds+33.9 %+10.2 %−10.3 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+32.6 %+9.9 %−12.4 %
Buffett 90/10+32.2 %+9.8 %−13.7 %
Target Retirement 2050+31.2 %+9.5 %−13.9 %
Second-Grader's+31.2 %+9.5 %−13.9 %
CPP Canada 85/15+29.9 %+9.1 %−13.1 %
Ferri Core Four+29.8 %+9.1 %−12.7 %
Swensen (Yale model)+28.9 %+8.8 %−11.8 %
Norway fund 70/30+28.9 %+8.8 %−11.2 %
NZ Super 80/20+28.5 %+8.7 %−12.4 %
Global market portfolio+28.3 %+8.7 %−9.7 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+27.5 %+8.4 %−11.0 %
Collins 75/25+27.0 %+8.3 %−11.8 %
Graham 75/25+27.0 %+8.3 %−11.8 %
Target Retirement 2040+27.0 %+8.3 %−11.8 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+25.6 %+7.9 %−7.4 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+25.5 %+7.9 %−0.9 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+25.2 %+7.8 %−10.0 %
Burns Margarita+24.6 %+7.6 %−10.8 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+24.1 %+7.5 %−10.6 %
Vanguard Wellington+24.1 %+7.5 %−10.6 %
iShares AOR 60/40+24.1 %+7.5 %−10.2 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+22.7 %+7.1 %−9.9 %
Target Retirement 2030+22.7 %+7.1 %−9.9 %
Couch Potato 50/50+19.7 %+6.2 %−8.7 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+19.7 %+6.2 %−8.7 %
Graham 50/50+19.7 %+6.2 %−8.7 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+19.0 %+6.0 %−7.7 %
Vanguard Wellesley+18.5 %+5.8 %−7.6 %
Target Retirement Income+13.6 %+4.3 %−6.2 %
Graham 25/75+12.0 %+3.9 %−5.7 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+11.2 %+3.6 %−5.1 %

The Great Inflation (stagflation) 1969-01 – 1982-07 Regime

Over 14 years the US moved from the end of the Bretton Woods system to repeated recessions with persistent high inflation, culminating in the Volcker disinflation. Stocks went sideways in nominal terms and lost heavily in real terms, nominal interest rates rose to historic peaks and real assets - gold and commodities - were the standout winners. The era includes the end of dollar-gold convertibility in 1971, two oil shocks and the first modern high-inflation episodes.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: No TIPS or em series. Gold could not be owned by US citizens until 31 Dec 1974; intl_dev, reit and commodities series start around 1970-72 (check assets_meta.json).

All models in this era (50)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Golden Butterfly+288.4 %+10.5 %−17.5 %
Permanent Portfolio+251.1 %+9.7 %−11.7 %
Four Corners+203.7 %+8.5 %−40.9 %
Merriman two funds+193.0 %+8.2 %−42.0 %
Coward's Portfolio+181.9 %+7.9 %−22.5 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+180.7 %+7.9 %−2.0 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+172.4 %+7.7 %−27.8 %
Talmud thirds+163.7 %+7.4 %−23.7 %
Coffeehouse+159.6 %+7.3 %−25.0 %
Gone Fishin'+157.1 %+7.2 %−26.0 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+153.9 %+7.1 %−25.3 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+144.2 %+6.8 %−25.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+140.6 %+6.7 %−35.3 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+138.8 %+6.6 %−31.1 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+133.3 %+6.4 %−13.0 %
Bengen for retirees+129.2 %+6.3 %−27.2 %
CalPERS+128.3 %+6.3 %−30.4 %
Vanguard Wellesley+123.8 %+6.1 %−14.6 %
Swensen (Yale model)+120.3 %+6.0 %−30.4 %
Ramsey four funds+117.9 %+5.9 %−47.8 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+116.1 %+5.8 %−30.0 %
Global market portfolio+114.1 %+5.8 %−26.2 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+105.0 %+5.4 %−20.0 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+103.9 %+5.4 %−40.6 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+103.5 %+5.4 %−29.1 %
Ferri Core Four+103.3 %+5.4 %−36.8 %
Norway fund 70/30+101.9 %+5.3 %−33.7 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+101.7 %+5.3 %−24.2 %
Couch Potato 50/50+101.7 %+5.3 %−24.2 %
Graham 50/50+101.7 %+5.3 %−24.2 %
Target Retirement Income+101.6 %+5.3 %−14.3 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+101.2 %+5.3 %−11.7 %
Graham 25/75+100.9 %+5.3 %−12.1 %
iShares AOR 60/40+100.9 %+5.3 %−30.0 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+100.3 %+5.2 %−29.0 %
Target Retirement 2030+100.3 %+5.2 %−29.0 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+99.3 %+5.2 %−38.2 %
Vanguard Wellington+99.2 %+5.2 %−31.3 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+99.2 %+5.2 %−31.3 %
Burns Margarita+98.7 %+5.2 %−32.1 %
Buffett 90/10+96.3 %+5.1 %−41.7 %
Target Retirement 2040+96.2 %+5.1 %−35.8 %
Collins 75/25+96.2 %+5.1 %−35.8 %
Graham 75/25+96.2 %+5.1 %−35.8 %
NZ Super 80/20+94.3 %+5.0 %−38.0 %
CPP Canada 85/15+92.2 %+4.9 %−40.2 %
Target Retirement 2050+89.9 %+4.8 %−42.3 %
Second-Grader's+89.9 %+4.8 %−42.3 %
Siegel: all US stocks+84.6 %+4.6 %−46.5 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+84.6 %+4.6 %−46.5 %

1973-74 oil shock and bear market 1973-01 – 1974-12 Stress window

The first oil shock quadrupled crude prices, the Bretton Woods system had just collapsed, and the US entered its longest recession since the 1930s. Stocks fell nearly half in less than two years, inflation reached double digits and unemployment rose; interest rates also rose, so both stocks and bonds disappointed.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Gold: free US ownership resumed on 1975-01-01; reit and commodities series start around 1972/1970; intl_dev ~1970; em and tips absent.

All models in this era (50)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Permanent Portfolio+27.1 %+12.7 %−9.8 %
Golden Butterfly+10.9 %+5.3 %−13.3 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+7.5 %+3.7 %−1.0 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−3.6 %−1.8 %−10.0 %
Graham 25/75−6.2 %−3.1 %−12.1 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−8.7 %−4.4 %−12.6 %
Target Retirement Income−8.8 %−4.5 %−14.3 %
Vanguard Wellesley−9.3 %−4.7 %−14.6 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−14.7 %−7.7 %−20.0 %
Couch Potato 50/50−18.9 %−10.0 %−24.2 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−18.9 %−10.0 %−24.2 %
Graham 50/50−18.9 %−10.0 %−24.2 %
Coward's Portfolio−20.1 %−10.6 %−22.5 %
Gone Fishin'−21.2 %−11.3 %−26.0 %
Global market portfolio−21.9 %−11.6 %−26.2 %
Talmud thirds−22.0 %−11.7 %−23.6 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−22.1 %−11.7 %−25.3 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−22.3 %−11.8 %−25.5 %
Coffeehouse−22.3 %−11.8 %−24.6 %
Bengen for retirees−23.7 %−12.7 %−27.1 %
Target Retirement 2030−23.8 %−12.7 %−29.0 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−23.8 %−12.7 %−29.0 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−24.1 %−12.9 %−29.1 %
iShares AOR 60/40−24.8 %−13.3 %−30.0 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−25.4 %−13.6 %−27.7 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−25.9 %−13.9 %−30.0 %
Vanguard Wellington−26.1 %−14.1 %−31.3 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−26.1 %−14.1 %−31.3 %
Swensen (Yale model)−26.7 %−14.4 %−30.4 %
Burns Margarita−26.9 %−14.5 %−32.1 %
CalPERS−27.1 %−14.6 %−30.3 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−28.3 %−15.3 %−31.0 %
Norway fund 70/30−28.9 %−15.7 %−33.7 %
Collins 75/25−30.8 %−16.8 %−35.8 %
Graham 75/25−30.8 %−16.8 %−35.8 %
Target Retirement 2040−30.8 %−16.8 %−35.8 %
Ferri Core Four−32.4 %−17.8 %−36.8 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−32.4 %−17.8 %−35.3 %
NZ Super 80/20−33.0 %−18.2 %−38.0 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−33.6 %−18.5 %−38.2 %
CPP Canada 85/15−35.3 %−19.5 %−40.2 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−36.6 %−20.4 %−40.6 %
Buffett 90/10−37.0 %−20.6 %−41.7 %
Second-Grader's−37.5 %−20.9 %−42.3 %
Target Retirement 2050−37.5 %−20.9 %−42.3 %
Four Corners−40.4 %−22.8 %−40.4 %
Merriman two funds−41.3 %−23.4 %−41.7 %
Siegel: all US stocks−41.7 %−23.7 %−46.5 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−41.7 %−23.7 %−46.5 %
Ramsey four funds−45.5 %−26.2 %−47.8 %

Second oil shock and the Volcker disinflation 1979-01 – 1982-08 Stress window

The Iranian revolution produced a second oil shock, and CPI inflation approached 15 percent in 1980. Paul Volcker's Fed switched in October 1979 to targeting money growth and drove short rates to around 20 percent in 1981, causing two recessions in three years. Inflation fell sharply, long-term bond yields peaked in 1981, and stocks bottomed in August 1982.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: No TIPS or em series. reit and commodities series begin earlier; intl_dev (EAFE) exists but check for data quality.

All models in this era (50)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Four Corners+89.1 %+19.0 %−16.0 %
Merriman two funds+86.4 %+18.5 %−15.9 %
Ramsey four funds+74.6 %+16.4 %−15.8 %
Golden Butterfly+69.7 %+15.5 %−12.7 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+68.9 %+15.4 %−10.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+68.7 %+15.3 %−11.7 %
Coward's Portfolio+67.5 %+15.1 %−9.7 %
Talmud thirds+64.1 %+14.5 %−7.7 %
Gone Fishin'+62.3 %+14.1 %−11.6 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+61.9 %+14.0 %−9.9 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+60.9 %+13.8 %−11.3 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+59.5 %+13.6 %−12.2 %
Permanent Portfolio+59.3 %+13.5 %−11.7 %
Siegel: all US stocks+59.2 %+13.5 %−16.3 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+59.2 %+13.5 %−16.3 %
Buffett 90/10+59.0 %+13.5 %−12.6 %
Coffeehouse+58.7 %+13.4 %−11.5 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+57.3 %+13.1 %−0.7 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+57.2 %+13.1 %−10.4 %
Target Retirement 2050+56.3 %+12.9 %−13.2 %
Second-Grader's+56.3 %+12.9 %−13.2 %
CalPERS+56.2 %+12.9 %−11.1 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+55.2 %+12.7 %−11.6 %
Bengen for retirees+54.8 %+12.7 %−10.9 %
CPP Canada 85/15+54.7 %+12.6 %−12.1 %
Ferri Core Four+54.6 %+12.6 %−11.1 %
Swensen (Yale model)+53.5 %+12.4 %−10.3 %
NZ Super 80/20+53.2 %+12.3 %−11.7 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+52.7 %+12.2 %−9.8 %
Target Retirement 2040+51.6 %+12.0 %−11.4 %
Collins 75/25+51.6 %+12.0 %−11.4 %
Graham 75/25+51.6 %+12.0 %−11.4 %
Norway fund 70/30+51.5 %+12.0 %−11.1 %
Burns Margarita+48.9 %+11.5 %−10.8 %
Global market portfolio+48.5 %+11.4 %−10.2 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+48.3 %+11.3 %−10.7 %
Vanguard Wellington+48.3 %+11.3 %−10.7 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+47.7 %+11.2 %−10.5 %
iShares AOR 60/40+47.7 %+11.2 %−10.5 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+46.6 %+11.0 %−10.3 %
Target Retirement 2030+46.6 %+11.0 %−10.3 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+43.1 %+10.3 %−9.8 %
Couch Potato 50/50+43.1 %+10.3 %−9.8 %
Graham 50/50+43.1 %+10.3 %−9.8 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+42.1 %+10.0 %−12.1 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+40.7 %+9.8 %−10.0 %
Vanguard Wellesley+40.6 %+9.7 %−10.9 %
Target Retirement Income+35.7 %+8.7 %−10.8 %
Graham 25/75+33.7 %+8.3 %−11.2 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+32.1 %+7.9 %−11.7 %

Great bull market in stocks and bonds 1982-08 – 1999-12 Regime

Disinflation, falling interest rates, globalisation, the personal-computer and internet booms and strong corporate profits drove an unusually long bull market in both stocks and bonds, with only brief interruptions (1987, 1990, 1994, 1998). Bond yields fell from the 1981 peak of over 15 percent to roughly 4.5-6.5 percent. Gold and commodities were weak for most of the period.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: tips not issued until 1997; em from 1988; the beginning of the era lacks em and tips.

All models in this era (50)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Merriman two funds+2133.7 %+19.5 %−30.6 %
Siegel: all US stocks+2060.4 %+19.3 %−29.9 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+2060.4 %+19.3 %−29.9 %
Four Corners+1939.2 %+18.9 %−30.2 %
Buffett 90/10+1743.1 %+18.2 %−27.4 %
Graham 75/25+1513.4 %+17.3 %−23.8 %
Collins 75/25+1506.2 %+17.3 %−23.7 %
Ramsey four funds+1446.3 %+17.0 %−31.3 %
Target Retirement 2050+1414.6 %+16.9 %−27.5 %
Second-Grader's+1407.3 %+16.9 %−27.5 %
Vanguard Wellington+1344.0 %+16.6 %−21.1 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+1320.3 %+16.5 %−26.7 %
NZ Super 80/20+1271.6 %+16.2 %−25.0 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+1255.3 %+16.1 %−25.2 %
CPP Canada 85/15+1246.5 %+16.1 %−26.4 %
Target Retirement 2040+1219.2 %+16.0 %−23.7 %
Ferri Core Four+1211.7 %+15.9 %−23.8 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+1105.2 %+15.4 %−20.9 %
Norway fund 70/30+1102.4 %+15.3 %−22.6 %
Graham 50/50+1088.2 %+15.3 %−16.7 %
Couch Potato 50/50+1077.8 %+15.2 %−16.5 %
iShares AOR 60/40+1070.9 %+15.2 %−20.1 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+1051.4 %+15.1 %−19.5 %
Target Retirement 2030+1037.2 %+15.0 %−19.5 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+1025.3 %+14.9 %−19.6 %
Swensen (Yale model)+1020.0 %+14.9 %−19.2 %
Coffeehouse+1019.1 %+14.9 %−18.0 %
CalPERS+1011.6 %+14.8 %−19.6 %
Burns Margarita+1006.3 %+14.8 %−21.6 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+994.1 %+14.7 %−19.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+977.6 %+14.6 %−24.3 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+972.3 %+14.6 %−20.3 %
Global market portfolio+970.3 %+14.6 %−17.7 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+963.8 %+14.5 %−19.3 %
Bengen for retirees+934.8 %+14.4 %−19.0 %
Vanguard Wellesley+932.6 %+14.3 %−11.4 %
Coward's Portfolio+890.0 %+14.1 %−18.1 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+872.9 %+14.0 %−18.5 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+856.6 %+13.8 %−20.7 %
Gone Fishin'+846.8 %+13.8 %−20.5 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+833.9 %+13.7 %−13.7 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+802.2 %+13.5 %−16.6 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+770.1 %+13.2 %−10.7 %
Graham 25/75+761.6 %+13.2 %−9.7 %
Talmud thirds+746.2 %+13.0 %−15.7 %
Target Retirement Income+741.4 %+13.0 %−9.9 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+650.7 %+12.3 %−7.9 %
Golden Butterfly+639.3 %+12.2 %−13.0 %
Permanent Portfolio+393.3 %+9.6 %−7.7 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+235.2 %+7.2 %−3.1 %

Black Monday 1987-08 – 1987-12 Stress window

After a strong rally in 1987, the Dow fell 22.6 percent on 19 October 1987, the largest one-day percentage fall on record. Concerns about higher rates, a falling dollar and program trading ('portfolio insurance') played roles. The Fed supplied liquidity, and the economy kept growing; stock markets recovered within about two years.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: em index starts 1988; tips not issued yet; intl_dev markets also crashed globally.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Taleb barbell 90/10−1.2 %—−3.1 %
Permanent Portfolio−2.8 %—−7.7 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−3.4 %—−6.3 %
Graham 25/75−5.0 %—−8.1 %
RPAR risk parity−5.4 %—−8.1 %
Dalio All Seasons−5.7 %—−9.8 %
Target Retirement Income−6.2 %—−9.9 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−7.2 %—−10.1 %
Vanguard Wellesley−7.7 %—−11.4 %
Golden Butterfly−8.0 %—−13.0 %
Faber GAA−8.3 %—−12.6 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−9.1 %—−13.7 %
Equal weight 1/N−10.6 %—−14.8 %
Couch Potato 50/50−11.2 %—−16.5 %
ABP (Netherlands)−11.2 %—−15.3 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−11.3 %—−16.6 %
Graham 50/50−11.5 %—−16.7 %
Talmud thirds−11.8 %—−15.7 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)−12.1 %—−15.4 %
Global market portfolio−12.6 %—−17.7 %
Faber Ivy (static)−12.8 %—−16.0 %
Coward's Portfolio−13.3 %—−18.1 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−13.5 %—−18.5 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−13.5 %—−19.5 %
Target Retirement 2030−13.5 %—−19.5 %
Coffeehouse−13.6 %—−18.0 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−13.7 %—−19.6 %
Bengen for retirees−13.8 %—−19.0 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−14.0 %—−19.3 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−14.0 %—−19.6 %
iShares AOR 60/40−14.0 %—−20.1 %
Swensen (Yale model)−14.0 %—−19.2 %
CalPERS−14.3 %—−19.6 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−14.7 %—−20.9 %
Gone Fishin'−14.7 %—−20.5 %
Vanguard Wellington−14.9 %—−21.1 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−15.0 %—−20.3 %
Harvard endowment−15.1 %—−19.4 %
CalSTRS−15.2 %—−20.3 %
Burns Margarita−15.3 %—−21.6 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−15.4 %—−20.7 %
Norway fund 70/30−16.2 %—−22.6 %
Collins 75/25−16.8 %—−23.7 %
Target Retirement 2040−16.8 %—−23.7 %
Graham 75/25−17.0 %—−23.8 %
Ferri Core Four−17.2 %—−23.8 %
NZ Super 80/20−17.9 %—−25.0 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−18.0 %—−24.3 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−18.1 %—−25.2 %
Stanford endowment−18.3 %—−23.9 %
CPP Canada 85/15−19.0 %—−26.4 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−19.5 %—−26.7 %
Buffett 90/10−19.8 %—−27.4 %
Second-Grader's−19.9 %—−27.5 %
Target Retirement 2050−19.9 %—−27.5 %
Siegel: all US stocks−21.8 %—−29.9 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−21.8 %—−29.9 %
Ramsey four funds−23.7 %—−31.3 %
Four Corners−23.8 %—−30.2 %
Merriman two funds−24.0 %—−30.6 %

Savings-and-loan crisis and 1990 recession 1990-07 – 1991-03 Stress window

A commercial real-estate bust and the savings-and-loan crisis tightened credit, and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August 1990 caused an oil price spike and a drop in confidence. The US entered a mild recession and the S&P 500 fell around 20 percent. Stocks surged once the Gulf War began in January 1991, and the Fed cut rates substantially.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: em starts 1988; tips and reits (index) exist only partly: check assets_meta.json.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Graham 25/75+9.1 %—−4.8 %
Graham 50/50+8.8 %—−8.0 %
Couch Potato 50/50+8.7 %—−7.4 %
Vanguard Wellington+8.5 %—−10.3 %
Dalio All Seasons+8.4 %—−3.6 %
Vanguard Wellesley+8.2 %—−6.2 %
Graham 75/25+8.2 %—−12.1 %
Collins 75/25+8.2 %—−11.8 %
Talmud thirds+7.8 %—−10.3 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+7.7 %—−4.0 %
Buffett 90/10+7.7 %—−14.5 %
Siegel: all US stocks+7.4 %—−16.5 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+7.4 %—−16.5 %
RPAR risk parity+7.3 %—−1.1 %
Target Retirement Income+7.2 %—−5.9 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+6.9 %—−7.4 %
Golden Butterfly+6.8 %—−6.7 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)+6.8 %—−4.2 %
ABP (Netherlands)+6.7 %—−8.9 %
Faber Ivy (static)+6.6 %—−3.2 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+6.4 %—−7.8 %
Permanent Portfolio+6.3 %—−2.7 %
Coffeehouse+6.2 %—−11.5 %
Bengen for retirees+6.2 %—−11.0 %
Global market portfolio+6.2 %—−10.5 %
Faber GAA+6.1 %—−6.3 %
CalPERS+6.0 %—−11.8 %
Harvard endowment+5.9 %—−7.2 %
Swensen (Yale model)+5.8 %—−12.2 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+5.7 %—−0.8 %
CalSTRS+5.7 %—−12.0 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+5.6 %—−10.4 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+5.6 %—−11.2 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+5.6 %—−12.4 %
Coward's Portfolio+5.5 %—−10.1 %
Equal weight 1/N+5.5 %—−5.5 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+5.2 %—−10.7 %
iShares AOR 60/40+5.1 %—−11.3 %
Target Retirement 2030+5.0 %—−11.0 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+5.0 %—−11.2 %
Merriman two funds+5.0 %—−21.6 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+4.8 %—−11.9 %
Stanford endowment+4.7 %—−14.1 %
Ferri Core Four+4.4 %—−13.7 %
Target Retirement 2040+3.9 %—−13.6 %
Four Corners+3.8 %—−22.0 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+3.7 %—−12.2 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+3.6 %—−15.4 %
Norway fund 70/30+3.6 %—−13.7 %
Gone Fishin'+3.5 %—−12.9 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+3.5 %—−10.7 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+3.3 %—−14.8 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+3.3 %—−14.4 %
NZ Super 80/20+3.3 %—−14.7 %
Burns Margarita+3.2 %—−13.1 %
Second-Grader's+3.0 %—−15.7 %
Target Retirement 2050+2.6 %—−16.2 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+2.5 %—−13.1 %
Ramsey four funds+1.9 %—−19.9 %
CPP Canada 85/15+1.8 %—−16.3 %

1994 bond market massacre 1994-02 – 1994-12 Stress window

The Fed unexpectedly started raising rates in February 1994, doubling the federal funds rate from 3 to 6 percent by February 1995, and long-term yields jumped. It is often described as one of the worst bond markets of the post-war era. Derivative losses (Orange County, December 1994) and the Mexican peso crisis added to the stress, while US stocks ended the year roughly flat.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: tips absent (issued 1997); em from 1988.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Taleb barbell 90/10+2.8 %—−0.3 %
Talmud thirds+0.2 %—−3.8 %
Faber Ivy (static)−1.1 %—−3.9 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)−1.9 %—−4.5 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−2.1 %—−4.1 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−2.1 %—−4.4 %
Harvard endowment−2.2 %—−4.7 %
Equal weight 1/N−2.3 %—−4.1 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−2.3 %—−4.1 %
Ferri Core Four−2.3 %—−4.7 %
Second-Grader's−2.4 %—−5.3 %
CalSTRS−2.5 %—−4.2 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−2.7 %—−5.2 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−2.9 %—−5.0 %
Buffett 90/10−3.0 %—−7.0 %
Coward's Portfolio−3.0 %—−4.0 %
Permanent Portfolio−3.0 %—−4.6 %
Target Retirement 2050−3.1 %—−5.9 %
Ramsey four funds−3.1 %—−5.5 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−3.1 %—−4.5 %
Siegel: all US stocks−3.2 %—−7.6 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−3.2 %—−7.6 %
Merriman two funds−3.2 %—−6.5 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−3.2 %—−5.6 %
Target Retirement 2040−3.3 %—−5.6 %
CalPERS−3.3 %—−4.7 %
NZ Super 80/20−3.3 %—−5.8 %
Collins 75/25−3.4 %—−7.0 %
Target Retirement 2030−3.4 %—−5.3 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−3.4 %—−5.2 %
Stanford endowment−3.4 %—−5.4 %
iShares AOR 60/40−3.4 %—−5.4 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−3.4 %—−5.5 %
CPP Canada 85/15−3.5 %—−5.8 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−3.5 %—−4.8 %
Couch Potato 50/50−3.6 %—−6.3 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−3.6 %—−5.1 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−3.8 %—−5.0 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−3.9 %—−4.9 %
Burns Margarita−3.9 %—−5.4 %
Gone Fishin'−3.9 %—−4.9 %
Swensen (Yale model)−3.9 %—−5.7 %
Golden Butterfly−4.0 %—−5.4 %
ABP (Netherlands)−4.1 %—−6.0 %
Faber GAA−4.2 %—−5.3 %
Vanguard Wellington−4.3 %—−7.4 %
Norway fund 70/30−4.3 %—−5.9 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−4.4 %—−5.1 %
Target Retirement Income−4.4 %—−5.6 %
Graham 75/25−4.5 %—−7.9 %
RPAR risk parity−4.6 %—−5.9 %
Bengen for retirees−5.0 %—−6.7 %
Global market portfolio−5.0 %—−6.4 %
Four Corners−5.3 %—−7.7 %
Coffeehouse−5.5 %—−7.1 %
Graham 50/50−5.8 %—−8.2 %
Vanguard Wellesley−5.9 %—−7.1 %
Dalio All Seasons−6.0 %—−8.0 %
Graham 25/75−7.1 %—−8.4 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−7.1 %—−7.7 %

Asian and Russian financial crises 1997-07 – 1998-10 Stress window

The Thai baht devaluation of July 1997 started a wave of currency and banking crises across Asia, followed by Russia's default and devaluation in August 1998. The hedge fund LTCM nearly failed and was recapitalised under Fed auspices in September 1998. US stocks dipped about 19 percent in mid-1998 but recovered by year-end after the Fed cut rates three times.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: tips from 1997 only; em from 1988; reit and commodities exist as indices.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Graham 25/75+23.7 %+17.3 %−2.4 %
Graham 50/50+23.3 %+17.0 %−7.2 %
Graham 75/25+22.9 %+16.7 %−12.4 %
Siegel: all US stocks+22.4 %+16.4 %−17.3 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+22.4 %+16.4 %−17.3 %
Buffett 90/10+21.3 %+15.6 %−15.6 %
Collins 75/25+20.5 %+15.0 %−12.8 %
Dalio All Seasons+20.3 %+14.8 %−4.1 %
Vanguard Wellington+20.1 %+14.7 %−11.4 %
Vanguard Wellesley+19.1 %+14.0 %−5.9 %
Couch Potato 50/50+18.6 %+13.7 %−8.1 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+15.1 %+11.1 %−8.9 %
Burns Margarita+14.9 %+11.0 %−8.6 %
Coffeehouse+14.7 %+10.8 %−9.7 %
Second-Grader's+14.6 %+10.8 %−13.7 %
Bengen for retirees+14.3 %+10.6 %−9.5 %
Merriman two funds+14.2 %+10.4 %−21.5 %
Target Retirement Income+13.9 %+10.2 %−3.3 %
Four Corners+13.4 %+9.9 %−21.9 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+13.3 %+9.8 %−3.5 %
Ferri Core Four+13.2 %+9.7 %−12.0 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+12.8 %+9.5 %−1.8 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+12.6 %+9.3 %−14.1 %
Golden Butterfly+12.1 %+9.0 %−8.2 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+12.0 %+8.9 %−10.0 %
Permanent Portfolio+11.8 %+8.8 %−4.0 %
Global market portfolio+11.6 %+8.6 %−8.7 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+11.2 %+8.3 %−5.7 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+11.1 %+8.2 %−5.8 %
Target Retirement 2030+10.4 %+7.7 %−9.2 %
Swensen (Yale model)+10.1 %+7.5 %−10.1 %
iShares AOR 60/40+10.1 %+7.4 %−9.9 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+9.7 %+7.2 %−11.1 %
Norway fund 70/30+9.6 %+7.1 %−11.1 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+9.6 %+7.1 %−9.6 %
Faber GAA+9.3 %+6.9 %−6.0 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+9.1 %+6.8 %−10.6 %
Target Retirement 2040+9.0 %+6.7 %−12.4 %
ABP (Netherlands)+8.9 %+6.6 %−8.6 %
Talmud thirds+8.6 %+6.4 %−11.1 %
Coward's Portfolio+8.4 %+6.2 %−11.3 %
Target Retirement 2050+8.3 %+6.2 %−15.2 %
CPP Canada 85/15+7.9 %+5.9 %−13.4 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+7.9 %+5.9 %−14.2 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+7.8 %+5.8 %−13.9 %
Ramsey four funds+7.6 %+5.7 %−20.3 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+7.5 %+5.6 %−11.1 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+7.5 %+5.6 %−9.5 %
NZ Super 80/20+7.4 %+5.5 %−13.7 %
RPAR risk parity+6.8 %+5.1 %−5.4 %
CalPERS+6.6 %+4.9 %−12.3 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+6.1 %+4.6 %−2.0 %
Faber Ivy (static)+5.4 %+4.1 %−10.9 %
CalSTRS+5.2 %+3.9 %−13.7 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+5.0 %+3.8 %−13.5 %
Stanford endowment+3.1 %+2.3 %−17.6 %
Gone Fishin'+1.8 %+1.3 %−13.4 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)+0.2 %+0.2 %−12.8 %
Equal weight 1/N−1.8 %−1.4 %−12.6 %
Harvard endowment−2.2 %−1.6 %−16.3 %

Dot-com bubble and crash 2000-03 – 2002-10 Stress window

Technology and telecom valuations collapsed from the March 2000 peak; the Nasdaq Composite lost about 78 percent by October 2002 and the S&P 500 about half. A mild recession (March-November 2001), the September 2001 attacks and accounting scandals (Enron, WorldCom) added to the stress. Value stocks, small-cap value, REITs, bonds and gold all did well relative to growth.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: Everything in our class list has some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+21.7 %+7.6 %−3.6 %
Graham 25/75+16.2 %+5.8 %−3.2 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+11.6 %+4.2 %−2.5 %
Vanguard Wellesley+10.4 %+3.8 %−7.7 %
Coffeehouse+9.0 %+3.3 %−7.2 %
Golden Butterfly+7.8 %+2.8 %−6.4 %
Dalio All Seasons+7.7 %+2.8 %−5.1 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+6.9 %+2.5 %−2.3 %
RPAR risk parity+6.0 %+2.2 %−6.1 %
ABP (Netherlands)+4.4 %+1.6 %−6.0 %
Target Retirement Income+3.8 %+1.4 %−3.6 %
Permanent Portfolio+1.5 %+0.6 %−6.0 %
Talmud thirds+1.5 %+0.6 %−10.4 %
Faber GAA+1.1 %+0.4 %−6.4 %
Faber Ivy (static)+0.6 %+0.2 %−11.7 %
Coward's Portfolio−1.9 %−0.7 %−12.4 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)−2.1 %−0.8 %−11.2 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−3.0 %−1.1 %−8.8 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−3.1 %−1.2 %−7.6 %
Equal weight 1/N−3.4 %−1.3 %−9.7 %
Graham 50/50−3.8 %−1.4 %−12.2 %
Global market portfolio−5.1 %−1.9 %−9.7 %
Bengen for retirees−5.3 %−2.0 %−9.3 %
Swensen (Yale model)−5.7 %−2.2 %−12.0 %
CalPERS−6.7 %−2.6 %−11.6 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−7.2 %−2.8 %−13.7 %
CalSTRS−7.3 %−2.8 %−12.3 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−7.4 %−2.9 %−12.3 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−8.1 %−3.1 %−12.1 %
Harvard endowment−8.4 %−3.2 %−15.1 %
Couch Potato 50/50−8.6 %−3.3 %−15.8 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−8.9 %−3.5 %−14.9 %
Merriman two funds−11.4 %−4.4 %−24.9 %
Four Corners−11.6 %−4.5 %−27.4 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−11.8 %−4.6 %−18.1 %
Stanford endowment−12.5 %−4.9 %−15.2 %
Gone Fishin'−13.9 %−5.5 %−16.2 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−15.5 %−6.1 %−20.1 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−15.8 %−6.2 %−21.3 %
Target Retirement 2030−16.0 %−6.3 %−21.0 %
Vanguard Wellington−16.5 %−6.6 %−24.0 %
iShares AOR 60/40−17.0 %−6.7 %−22.0 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−19.1 %−7.6 %−24.3 %
Norway fund 70/30−19.5 %−7.8 %−24.3 %
Burns Margarita−20.9 %−8.4 %−25.7 %
Graham 75/25−21.6 %−8.7 %−29.5 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−21.6 %−8.7 %−24.6 %
Ferri Core Four−22.2 %−9.0 %−28.1 %
Collins 75/25−23.7 %−9.7 %−31.4 %
Target Retirement 2040−25.0 %−10.2 %−30.6 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−27.1 %−11.2 %−32.3 %
NZ Super 80/20−28.0 %−11.6 %−33.6 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−28.5 %−11.8 %−33.5 %
CPP Canada 85/15−29.9 %−12.5 %−35.4 %
Buffett 90/10−32.3 %−13.6 %−40.0 %
Ramsey four funds−32.4 %−13.7 %−35.9 %
Second-Grader's−33.3 %−14.1 %−39.5 %
Target Retirement 2050−33.4 %−14.1 %−39.3 %
Siegel: all US stocks−37.2 %−16.0 %−45.0 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−37.2 %−16.0 %−45.0 %

Recovery and housing boom 2002-11 – 2007-09 Regime

After the 2002 lows, easy money (funds rate at 1 percent until mid-2004), cheap credit and rising house prices drove global growth. Emerging markets, commodities, real estate and value stocks led while the dollar weakened; the Fed then raised rates 17 times to 5.25 percent by June 2006. US house prices peaked around 2006, but equity markets continued to a record in October 2007.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: tips exist; all classes in our list have some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Harvard endowment+143.1 %+19.8 %−4.0 %
Ramsey four funds+138.8 %+19.4 %−9.1 %
Target Retirement 2050+133.2 %+18.8 %−7.0 %
CPP Canada 85/15+133.0 %+18.8 %−6.2 %
Faber Ivy (static)+131.4 %+18.6 %−4.4 %
Four Corners+129.9 %+18.5 %−11.0 %
Equal weight 1/N+126.7 %+18.1 %−4.5 %
Merriman two funds+125.7 %+18.0 %−9.0 %
Gone Fishin'+123.9 %+17.8 %−4.4 %
NZ Super 80/20+122.6 %+17.7 %−5.8 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+120.6 %+17.5 %−5.8 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)+120.5 %+17.5 %−3.9 %
Stanford endowment+120.2 %+17.4 %−4.7 %
CalSTRS+115.7 %+16.9 %−5.2 %
Second-Grader's+115.5 %+16.9 %−7.2 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+111.8 %+16.5 %−6.8 %
Target Retirement 2040+111.4 %+16.4 %−5.2 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+110.7 %+16.4 %−5.1 %
Swensen (Yale model)+110.3 %+16.3 %−5.8 %
Norway fund 70/30+109.4 %+16.2 %−4.1 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+108.9 %+16.2 %−4.8 %
Ferri Core Four+107.0 %+15.9 %−5.2 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+105.6 %+15.8 %−4.5 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+105.1 %+15.7 %−6.1 %
CalPERS+104.7 %+15.7 %−4.8 %
ABP (Netherlands)+101.4 %+15.3 %−5.6 %
Burns Margarita+100.9 %+15.2 %−3.8 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+98.5 %+15.0 %−3.9 %
Siegel: all US stocks+97.0 %+14.8 %−9.6 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+97.0 %+14.8 %−9.6 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+93.2 %+14.3 %−3.8 %
iShares AOR 60/40+92.4 %+14.2 %−3.6 %
RPAR risk parity+91.7 %+14.2 %−4.1 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+91.4 %+14.1 %−3.3 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+90.2 %+14.0 %−4.9 %
Target Retirement 2030+90.1 %+14.0 %−3.3 %
Coward's Portfolio+89.9 %+13.9 %−4.5 %
Faber GAA+89.1 %+13.8 %−4.2 %
Talmud thirds+89.1 %+13.8 %−6.7 %
Coffeehouse+88.3 %+13.7 %−5.4 %
Buffett 90/10+87.1 %+13.6 %−8.4 %
Global market portfolio+85.5 %+13.4 %−4.1 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+84.1 %+13.2 %−3.3 %
Golden Butterfly+81.8 %+12.9 %−5.1 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+78.3 %+12.5 %−3.4 %
Collins 75/25+76.0 %+12.2 %−6.0 %
Bengen for retirees+74.9 %+12.0 %−3.7 %
Graham 75/25+74.6 %+12.0 %−5.5 %
Vanguard Wellington+72.2 %+11.7 %−4.0 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+66.5 %+10.9 %−2.8 %
Dalio All Seasons+65.1 %+10.7 %−5.3 %
Permanent Portfolio+64.9 %+10.7 %−4.5 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+63.4 %+10.5 %−5.6 %
Couch Potato 50/50+56.5 %+9.5 %−2.6 %
Vanguard Wellesley+54.9 %+9.3 %−3.2 %
Target Retirement Income+54.7 %+9.3 %−3.1 %
Graham 50/50+53.8 %+9.2 %−3.4 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+42.3 %+7.4 %−3.0 %
Graham 25/75+34.6 %+6.2 %−5.1 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+25.0 %+4.6 %−0.7 %

Global financial crisis 2007-10 – 2009-03 Stress window

The US housing bust turned into a banking crisis that peaked with the Lehman Brothers failure in September 2008. Stocks fell almost 57 percent from the October 2007 peak to the March 2009 low, credit froze, and the economy suffered the deepest recession since the 1930s. The Fed cut to zero, launched quantitative easing and Congress passed TARP.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: All classes in our list have some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Graham 25/75+4.2 %+2.8 %−8.9 %
Permanent Portfolio+1.1 %+0.7 %−12.2 %
Dalio All Seasons−0.2 %−0.1 %−12.1 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−1.7 %−1.1 %−10.7 %
Taleb barbell 90/10−3.2 %−2.1 %−5.1 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−3.5 %−2.3 %−10.0 %
RPAR risk parity−8.6 %−5.8 %−23.6 %
Target Retirement Income−9.4 %−6.4 %−14.9 %
Golden Butterfly−9.9 %−6.7 %−16.0 %
Graham 50/50−13.2 %−9.0 %−19.3 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−15.8 %−10.8 %−20.7 %
Faber GAA−17.2 %−11.8 %−23.0 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−18.8 %−12.9 %−24.3 %
Bengen for retirees−19.2 %−13.3 %−25.1 %
Couch Potato 50/50−19.6 %−13.5 %−24.4 %
Vanguard Wellesley−19.6 %−13.6 %−23.6 %
Global market portfolio−23.0 %−16.0 %−28.7 %
Coffeehouse−26.0 %−18.2 %−31.4 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−26.2 %−18.3 %−31.2 %
Target Retirement 2030−26.3 %−18.4 %−31.9 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−26.4 %−18.5 %−32.0 %
Equal weight 1/N−26.4 %−18.5 %−34.1 %
ABP (Netherlands)−26.7 %−18.7 %−32.1 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−27.2 %−19.1 %−33.1 %
iShares AOR 60/40−27.3 %−19.1 %−33.0 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−28.6 %−20.1 %−34.0 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−28.9 %−20.3 %−34.8 %
Coward's Portfolio−29.1 %−20.5 %−33.9 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)−29.1 %−20.5 %−37.5 %
Graham 75/25−29.5 %−20.8 %−35.6 %
Norway fund 70/30−30.4 %−21.4 %−36.6 %
Vanguard Wellington−30.8 %−21.8 %−35.7 %
Burns Margarita−31.1 %−22.0 %−37.3 %
Gone Fishin'−31.3 %−22.2 %−37.3 %
Collins 75/25−32.5 %−23.1 %−38.0 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−33.2 %−23.6 %−37.7 %
CalPERS−33.4 %−23.7 %−38.3 %
Swensen (Yale model)−34.1 %−24.3 %−39.7 %
Target Retirement 2040−34.3 %−24.4 %−40.2 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−34.5 %−24.6 %−39.4 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−35.0 %−24.9 %−40.1 %
Faber Ivy (static)−35.2 %−25.1 %−43.2 %
Stanford endowment−35.9 %−25.7 %−41.7 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−36.0 %−25.7 %−40.4 %
Harvard endowment−36.1 %−25.8 %−43.0 %
CalSTRS−36.9 %−26.4 %−41.9 %
NZ Super 80/20−37.0 %−26.5 %−43.1 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−37.0 %−26.5 %−43.0 %
Talmud thirds−37.9 %−27.2 %−41.1 %
CPP Canada 85/15−38.3 %−27.5 %−44.6 %
Ferri Core Four−38.4 %−27.6 %−43.4 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−39.5 %−28.5 %−44.9 %
Buffett 90/10−39.9 %−28.8 %−45.4 %
Second-Grader's−41.9 %−30.4 %−47.3 %
Target Retirement 2050−42.0 %−30.5 %−48.1 %
Siegel: all US stocks−44.7 %−32.6 %−50.3 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−44.7 %−32.6 %−50.3 %
Ramsey four funds−47.2 %−34.7 %−52.7 %
Merriman two funds−48.2 %−35.5 %−53.4 %
Four Corners−49.6 %−36.7 %−55.1 %

The decade after the crisis 2009-04 – 2019-12 Regime

The longest US expansion on record (June 2009 to February 2020, 128 months), with near-zero policy rates until December 2015, three rounds of quantitative easing, low inflation and low volatility. US large-cap growth stocks led, international and emerging markets lagged, commodities and gold peaked in 2011 and then declined. Brief scares came from the euro-zone debt crisis, the US credit downgrade (2011), the 2013 taper tantrum, China/oil in 2015-16 and the fourth quarter of 2018.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: All classes in our list have some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Siegel: all US stocks+411.2 %+16.4 %−17.7 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+411.2 %+16.4 %−17.7 %
Merriman two funds+393.7 %+16.0 %−21.5 %
Four Corners+382.3 %+15.8 %−23.3 %
Buffett 90/10+343.8 %+14.9 %−16.0 %
Ramsey four funds+339.2 %+14.8 %−21.8 %
Second-Grader's+285.5 %+13.4 %−17.0 %
Collins 75/25+285.1 %+13.4 %−12.3 %
Graham 75/25+282.0 %+13.3 %−10.5 %
Vanguard Wellington+279.6 %+13.2 %−10.5 %
Target Retirement 2050+276.2 %+13.1 %−17.5 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+273.9 %+13.1 %−16.6 %
Ferri Core Four+261.4 %+12.7 %−14.5 %
CalSTRS+246.5 %+12.3 %−13.6 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+242.8 %+12.1 %−15.6 %
CPP Canada 85/15+240.9 %+12.1 %−15.4 %
NZ Super 80/20+239.9 %+12.1 %−15.3 %
Stanford endowment+238.7 %+12.0 %−16.7 %
Swensen (Yale model)+233.6 %+11.9 %−10.7 %
CalPERS+232.8 %+11.8 %−12.4 %
Talmud thirds+231.9 %+11.8 %−11.9 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+231.1 %+11.8 %−13.5 %
Target Retirement 2040+227.6 %+11.7 %−14.0 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+219.9 %+11.4 %−11.7 %
Norway fund 70/30+210.7 %+11.1 %−11.6 %
ABP (Netherlands)+208.7 %+11.1 %−7.7 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+207.6 %+11.0 %−16.6 %
Coffeehouse+199.8 %+10.8 %−9.2 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+198.2 %+10.7 %−11.6 %
Harvard endowment+196.2 %+10.6 %−16.9 %
Gone Fishin'+193.7 %+10.5 %−13.4 %
Faber Ivy (static)+193.6 %+10.5 %−13.6 %
iShares AOR 60/40+191.4 %+10.5 %−10.9 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+191.1 %+10.5 %−9.9 %
Global market portfolio+189.3 %+10.4 %−7.7 %
Couch Potato 50/50+186.1 %+10.3 %−6.9 %
Burns Margarita+184.5 %+10.2 %−11.7 %
Target Retirement 2030+183.4 %+10.2 %−10.3 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+183.4 %+10.2 %−10.6 %
Graham 50/50+179.3 %+10.0 %−6.5 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+176.4 %+9.9 %−15.8 %
Bengen for retirees+175.6 %+9.9 %−9.3 %
Vanguard Wellesley+172.8 %+9.8 %−6.3 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+170.2 %+9.7 %−13.1 %
Coward's Portfolio+161.2 %+9.3 %−13.4 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+160.9 %+9.3 %−10.6 %
Faber GAA+156.4 %+9.2 %−6.7 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)+155.8 %+9.1 %−14.0 %
Equal weight 1/N+153.7 %+9.0 %−12.0 %
Golden Butterfly+153.6 %+9.0 %−6.5 %
Dalio All Seasons+143.6 %+8.6 %−6.5 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+134.8 %+8.3 %−5.9 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+133.5 %+8.2 %−7.0 %
Permanent Portfolio+109.6 %+7.1 %−6.8 %
Target Retirement Income+107.7 %+7.0 %−3.9 %
Graham 25/75+99.3 %+6.6 %−5.0 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+97.8 %+6.6 %−5.1 %
RPAR risk parity+94.4 %+6.4 %−13.2 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+87.8 %+6.0 %−3.0 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+25.2 %+2.1 %−2.8 %

Fourth-quarter 2018 sell-off 2018-09 – 2018-12 Stress window

US stocks dropped almost 20 percent in a little over three months as the Fed continued to raise rates and shrink its balance sheet, trade tensions between the US and China escalated and growth worries mounted. The S&P 500 fell about 19.8 percent from 20 September to 24 December, then rebounded sharply when the Fed signalled patience in January 2019.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: All classes in our list have some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
LifeStrategy 20/80−1.7 %—−2.7 %
Permanent Portfolio−1.9 %—−3.0 %
Taleb barbell 90/10−2.0 %—−2.0 %
Graham 25/75−2.1 %—−3.4 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−3.5 %—−4.6 %
Target Retirement Income−3.6 %—−3.6 %
Dalio All Seasons−4.9 %—−4.9 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−5.1 %—−5.1 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−5.6 %—−5.6 %
Faber GAA−5.7 %—−5.7 %
RPAR risk parity−5.8 %—−5.8 %
Vanguard Wellesley−5.9 %—−5.9 %
Golden Butterfly−6.3 %—−6.3 %
Graham 50/50−6.5 %—−6.5 %
Couch Potato 50/50−6.9 %—−6.9 %
Target Retirement 2030−7.6 %—−7.6 %
Talmud thirds−7.6 %—−7.6 %
Global market portfolio−7.7 %—−7.7 %
ABP (Netherlands)−7.7 %—−7.7 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−7.9 %—−7.9 %
iShares AOR 60/40−8.0 %—−8.0 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−8.0 %—−8.0 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−8.2 %—−8.2 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−8.3 %—−8.3 %
Equal weight 1/N−8.3 %—−8.3 %
Swensen (Yale model)−8.3 %—−8.3 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−8.4 %—−8.4 %
Coward's Portfolio−9.1 %—−9.1 %
Coffeehouse−9.2 %—−9.2 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−9.2 %—−9.2 %
Bengen for retirees−9.3 %—−9.3 %
CalPERS−9.3 %—−9.3 %
Norway fund 70/30−9.3 %—−9.3 %
Gone Fishin'−9.5 %—−9.5 %
Burns Margarita−9.6 %—−9.6 %
Target Retirement 2040−9.7 %—−9.7 %
Vanguard Wellington−10.0 %—−10.1 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−10.1 %—−10.1 %
NZ Super 80/20−10.3 %—−10.4 %
CalSTRS−10.3 %—−10.3 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−10.3 %—−10.3 %
Ferri Core Four−10.5 %—−10.5 %
Graham 75/25−10.5 %—−10.5 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)−10.5 %—−10.5 %
Faber Ivy (static)−10.7 %—−10.9 %
Collins 75/25−10.7 %—−10.7 %
CPP Canada 85/15−10.8 %—−10.9 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−10.9 %—−10.9 %
Target Retirement 2050−11.8 %—−12.0 %
Harvard endowment−12.2 %—−12.2 %
Second-Grader's−12.3 %—−12.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−12.6 %—−12.6 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−12.8 %—−12.8 %
Buffett 90/10−12.9 %—−13.1 %
Stanford endowment−13.9 %—−13.9 %
Siegel: all US stocks−14.4 %—−14.5 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−14.4 %—−14.5 %
Ramsey four funds−17.3 %—−17.3 %
Merriman two funds−18.3 %—−18.3 %
Four Corners−19.0 %—−19.0 %

Covid crash and stimulus boom 2020-02 – 2021-12 Regime

The pandemic caused the fastest bear market on record (S&P 500 down about 34 percent in 33 days to 23 March 2020) and a two-month recession. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus (CARES Act, near-zero rates, large asset purchases) fueled a rapid recovery, retail trading booms, SPACs and meme stocks in 2021, and a surge in inflation from spring 2021 as supply chains were strained.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: All classes in our list have some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Merriman two funds+58.4 %+27.1 %−27.3 %
Four Corners+53.8 %+25.2 %−29.7 %
Siegel: all US stocks+53.6 %+25.1 %−20.2 %
S&P 500, buy and hold+53.6 %+25.1 %−20.2 %
Ramsey four funds+48.5 %+22.9 %−23.7 %
Buffett 90/10+48.0 %+22.7 %−18.0 %
Collins 75/25+40.1 %+19.2 %−14.8 %
Second-Grader's+40.0 %+19.2 %−18.4 %
Graham 75/25+39.6 %+19.0 %−12.9 %
Fidelity Four-in-One+39.2 %+18.8 %−18.2 %
Target Retirement 2050+38.5 %+18.5 %−18.4 %
Stanford endowment+37.2 %+18.0 %−18.6 %
Vanguard Wellington+36.1 %+17.4 %−14.9 %
Ferri Core Four+35.1 %+17.0 %−16.5 %
Harvard endowment+34.9 %+16.9 %−19.6 %
LifeStrategy 80/20+34.5 %+16.7 %−16.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer+34.0 %+16.5 %−16.9 %
CPP Canada 85/15+33.8 %+16.4 %−16.3 %
NZ Super 80/20+33.8 %+16.4 %−16.2 %
CalSTRS+32.6 %+15.9 %−16.4 %
Faber Ivy (static)+32.5 %+15.8 %−17.9 %
Target Retirement 2040+32.2 %+15.7 %−15.1 %
Burns Margarita+31.2 %+15.2 %−14.0 %
Alaska Permanent Fund+30.8 %+15.1 %−15.9 %
Swensen (Yale model)+30.8 %+15.0 %−14.0 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)+30.5 %+14.9 %−16.8 %
CalPERS+30.1 %+14.7 %−15.1 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)+29.4 %+14.4 %−14.0 %
Talmud thirds+29.2 %+14.3 %−14.9 %
Norway fund 70/30+29.1 %+14.3 %−13.4 %
Gone Fishin'+29.0 %+14.2 %−15.2 %
GIC Singapore 65/35+28.2 %+13.8 %−12.9 %
Equal weight 1/N+27.8 %+13.7 %−14.7 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)+27.7 %+13.6 %−11.8 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt+27.7 %+13.6 %−14.4 %
Coffeehouse+27.6 %+13.6 %−12.6 %
Armstrong Ideal Index+27.4 %+13.5 %−17.2 %
iShares AOR 60/40+27.3 %+13.4 %−12.3 %
Couch Potato 50/50+27.3 %+13.4 %−9.5 %
Bengen for retirees+26.9 %+13.2 %−9.4 %
Coward's Portfolio+26.8 %+13.2 %−14.7 %
Golden Butterfly+26.5 %+13.1 %−7.2 %
Graham 50/50+26.4 %+13.0 %−5.8 %
Target Retirement 2030+26.3 %+12.9 %−11.8 %
LifeStrategy 60/40+26.3 %+12.9 %−12.1 %
ABP (Netherlands)+25.9 %+12.8 %−11.6 %
Global market portfolio+25.4 %+12.5 %−10.7 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40+24.2 %+12.0 %−12.8 %
RPAR risk parity+23.7 %+11.7 %−8.8 %
Dalio All Seasons+21.6 %+10.8 %−4.6 %
Faber GAA+21.2 %+10.6 %−8.9 %
Vanguard Wellesley+20.5 %+10.2 %−11.9 %
LifeStrategy 40/60+18.9 %+9.4 %−7.9 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25+18.4 %+9.2 %−7.9 %
Permanent Portfolio+17.4 %+8.7 %−4.6 %
Target Retirement Income+16.5 %+8.3 %−5.7 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio+14.0 %+7.1 %−2.3 %
Graham 25/75+13.8 %+7.0 %−3.7 %
LifeStrategy 20/80+10.8 %+5.5 %−3.3 %
Taleb barbell 90/10+5.4 %+2.8 %−2.6 %

Inflation shock and rate hikes 2022-01 – 2022-12 Stress window

US consumer inflation reached 9.1 percent in June 2022, the highest in four decades, driven by stimulus, supply shocks and the war in Ukraine. The Fed raised the funds rate from 0-0.25 to 4.25-4.50 percent in seven steps. Stocks and bonds fell together: the S&P 500 lost about 25 percent between January and October, and the bond market had its worst year in decades. Energy and commodities rose, and the dollar strengthened.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: All classes in our list have some series in this era.

All models in this era (60)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop
Taleb barbell 90/10−0.4 %−0.4 %−1.9 %
Coward's Portfolio−9.3 %−9.3 %−14.5 %
Four Corners−9.7 %−9.7 %−17.5 %
RPAR risk parity−9.9 %−9.9 %−14.5 %
Armstrong Ideal Index−10.4 %−10.4 %−17.2 %
7Twelve (Israelsen)−10.8 %−10.8 %−15.1 %
DFA 60/40 value tilt−10.8 %−10.8 %−16.1 %
Equal weight 1/N−10.9 %−10.9 %−15.5 %
Golden Butterfly−12.2 %−12.2 %−16.7 %
Permanent Portfolio−12.3 %−12.3 %−15.8 %
Harvard endowment−12.4 %−12.4 %−16.8 %
Merriman two funds−13.1 %−13.1 %−19.9 %
Faber Ivy (static)−13.2 %−13.2 %−18.5 %
Merriman Ultimate 60/40−13.2 %−13.2 %−18.9 %
Vanguard Wellesley−13.6 %−13.6 %−18.6 %
Bernstein No-Brainer−14.0 %−14.0 %−19.5 %
LifeStrategy 20/80−14.0 %−14.0 %−16.6 %
Coffeehouse−14.4 %−14.4 %−19.2 %
Target Retirement Income−14.5 %−14.5 %−17.7 %
Talmud thirds−14.5 %−14.5 %−17.5 %
Swedroe Larry Portfolio−14.9 %−14.9 %−17.9 %
Gone Fishin'−15.0 %−15.0 %−20.7 %
LifeStrategy 40/60−15.1 %−15.1 %−18.9 %
Stanford endowment−15.2 %−15.2 %−19.6 %
GPIF Japan 25/25/25/25−15.7 %−15.7 %−21.0 %
Burns Margarita−15.7 %−15.7 %−22.0 %
LifeStrategy 60/40−16.1 %−16.1 %−21.0 %
Target Retirement 2030−16.1 %−16.1 %−21.1 %
Bengen for retirees−16.3 %−16.3 %−19.8 %
Three-Fund (Bogleheads)−16.3 %−16.3 %−21.1 %
iShares AOR 60/40−16.3 %−16.3 %−21.2 %
GIC Singapore 65/35−16.5 %−16.5 %−21.6 %
Couch Potato 50/50−16.5 %−16.5 %−19.6 %
Malkiel life-cycle (50s)−16.7 %−16.7 %−21.5 %
Faber GAA−16.7 %−16.7 %−21.0 %
Alaska Permanent Fund−16.8 %−16.8 %−21.3 %
CalSTRS−16.9 %−16.9 %−21.1 %
Target Retirement 2040−17.0 %−17.0 %−22.8 %
LifeStrategy 80/20−17.1 %−17.1 %−23.1 %
NZ Super 80/20−17.2 %−17.2 %−23.3 %
Graham 25/75−17.2 %−17.2 %−18.8 %
Fidelity Four-in-One−17.3 %−17.3 %−23.4 %
Norway fund 70/30−17.5 %−17.5 %−23.3 %
CPP Canada 85/15−17.5 %−17.5 %−24.4 %
CalPERS−17.6 %−17.6 %−21.9 %
Ramsey four funds−17.6 %−17.6 %−24.1 %
Global market portfolio−17.6 %−17.6 %−21.9 %
Target Retirement 2050−17.7 %−17.7 %−24.4 %
Second-Grader's−17.8 %−17.8 %−24.5 %
Ferri Core Four−17.8 %−17.8 %−23.6 %
Graham 50/50−18.1 %−18.1 %−20.8 %
Collins 75/25−18.2 %−18.2 %−22.2 %
Buffett 90/10−18.3 %−18.3 %−22.8 %
Swensen (Yale model)−18.4 %−18.4 %−23.0 %
Graham 75/25−19.0 %−19.0 %−22.8 %
ABP (Netherlands)−19.0 %−19.0 %−22.8 %
Vanguard Wellington−19.2 %−19.2 %−23.6 %
Dalio All Seasons−19.6 %−19.6 %−21.7 %
Siegel: all US stocks−19.9 %−19.9 %−24.8 %
S&P 500, buy and hold−19.9 %−19.9 %−24.8 %

Higher-for-longer, AI boom and tariff shock 2023-01 – 2026-10 Regime

Rates stayed high into 2024 while inflation cooled and the economy avoided recession. Regional bank failures (March 2023) briefly rattled markets, then a rally led by artificial-intelligence names lifted US large caps to records. The Fed cut rates from September 2024, and again in late 2025 (to 3.50-3.75 percent). In April 2025 new US tariffs caused a short sharp equity decline followed by a rebound. Gold climbed to successive records through January 2026. After the US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, oil jumped and the S&P 500 fell nearly 10 percent from its January record by late March, then recovered by mid-April and reached new records, including a first close above 7,800 in early October. Inflation re-accelerated (US CPI 3.7 percent year on year in September 2026), and the Fed, after holding at 3.50-3.75 percent from December 2025, raised the target range by 25 bp to 3.75-4.00 percent on 16 September 2026, its first hike since 2023. Facts for 2026 come from a few sources and are marked as such in the uncertain list.

Key events

Market facts

What worked

What failed

Data gaps: All classes in our list have some series in this era; coverage to Oct 2026 depends on the data build.

All models in this era (0)
ModelTotalPer yearWorst drop

Calculated on historical data. Past results do not predict the future. Models before the 1990s use stand-ins for classes that had no index yet; fees, taxes and fund costs are not included. This is mathematics, not an investment recommendation.