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CPP Canada 85/15

CPP Investments Reference Portfolio / Market Risk Target (Canada Pension Plan): 85% global equities, 15% Canadian government bonds

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments, formerly CPPIB); reform legislated in 1997 by the Government of Canada and the provinces · Reference Portfolio introduced in fiscal 2007 (65/35); raised to 85/15 in steps from fiscal 2016 to 2019; renamed 'Market Risk Target' and replaced as a performance benchmark by 'Benchmark Portfolios' in fiscal 2025 (year ended 31 March 2025)

Live account on this site. This portfolio is also tracked here with a virtual $100,000 since 21.10.2026. Live account on this site →

Where it stands today

Data through 2026-09. Updated every month.

Since January+9.5 %
Last 12 months+13.0 %
Last 5 years, per year+8.9 %
Now below the peak−1.8 %
Place by 12 months16 / 60

Our calculation, 1926-07 – 2026-09

Per year9.3 %
Real (after inflation)6.1 %
Volatility15.5 %
Worst drop−77.0 %
Worst year−37.1 % (1931)
Best year49.0 %
Worst 12 months−57.7 %
Positive years75 %

27 % of this history is calculated with stand-ins for asset classes that did not exist yet (see “How we model it” and the page about data). Without stand-ins the history starts in 1990.

Growth of $10,000

$4,147$35,740$308,016$2,654,584$22,878,060$197,170,5081930194019501960197019801990200020102020
CPP Canada 85/15: $71,790,395S&P 500: $196,488,890

Where it came from

Before 1997 the Canada Pension Plan was run almost as a pay-as-you-go scheme with a reserve of about two years of benefits. According to the Department of Finance's 1997 reform papers, money not needed to pay benefits was lent to provincial governments through non-marketable provincial securities at the federal long-term bond rate. Faced with an ageing population, in 1997 federal and provincial governments agreed to move to 'steady-state' funding: the contribution rate was set to rise from 5.85 to 9.9 percent of contributory earnings by 2003, and a Canada Pension Plan Investment Board was created to invest the money not required for current benefits in a diversified portfolio of market securities. The Government papers said the rate would otherwise have had to rise to about 14.2 percent.

CPP Investments (then CPPIB) was established in December 1997 under the CPP Investment Board Act as a federal Crown corporation and received its first funds for investing in March 1999. In 2006 (fiscal 2007) CPPIB made what it calls a strategic decision to move to an active investment approach. At that time the board introduced a simple two-asset Reference Portfolio, called the 'Market Risk Target' in recent reports: 65 percent equity and 35 percent debt, a level that the fund's 2025 annual report calls 'in the typical range for conventional fully funded pension plans'. It served two roles: it expressed how much market risk the fund wanted to take, and it was the benchmark against which the active value added by CPPIB was measured.

In fiscal 2015 the board approved raising the base CPP risk target from 65/35 to 85/15, phased in from fiscal 2016 to 2018. The 2025 annual report charts the path: fiscal 2015 65 percent equity (55 percent global equities excluding Canada plus 10 percent Canadian equities) and 35 percent debt (30 percent Canadian government bonds plus 5 percent G7 government bonds); fiscal 2016 72/28; fiscal 2017 78/22; fiscal 2018 82.5/17.5; fiscal 2019 onward 85/15, simplified to global public equities including Canada and Canadian government bonds. The review that supports such changes is made at least every three years after the Chief Actuary's triennial report, using a 75-year simulation of how investment returns affect future CPP contributions and benefits. The most recent review was completed in fiscal 2024 after the 31st Actuarial Report (December 2022), and the board chose not to change the risk targets.

In 2019 an 'additional CPP' account (enhancement) started on 1 January 2019 with its own Reference Portfolio of 50 percent equity and 50 percent debt, which was increased to 55/45 from fiscal 2022. The minimum levels of market risk (60/40 for the base CPP and 45/55 for the additional CPP) are the lowest-risk mixes the Chief Actuary's analysis found workable; the fund aims higher, expressed as 85/15 for the base plan. The most quoted 'CPP Reference Portfolio', 85 percent equity and 15 percent bonds, therefore refers to the base CPP account (the larger account).

From about fiscal 2016 the fund became much more diversified, with large private equity, infrastructure, real estate, credit and leverage positions, and the 2025 annual report explains that the Reference Portfolio's role shifted from benchmark to mainly an expression of target market risk. CPP Investments says its approach follows a 'Total Portfolio Approach' and 'Total Portfolio Investment Framework' (strategic portfolios, target exposures and annual target portfolios). In fiscal 2025 it replaced the Reference Portfolios (renamed Market Risk Targets) with 'Benchmark Portfolios', built from public-market indexes matching each investment strategy, as the yardstick for relative performance and incentive pay. Which year exactly CPP Investments started using the label 'Total Portfolio Approach' was not established in this research; the fund says its change of benchmark followed a multi-year evolution disclosed in annual reports from fiscal 2022 to 2025.

What is in it

Global public equities (including Canada)85%Base CPP targeted level of market risk from fiscal 2019 onward; minimum level 60 percent. Additional CPP: 55 percent target (from fiscal 2022), 45 percent minimum.
Canadian government bonds15%Base CPP; minimum level 40 percent. Additional CPP: 45 percent target, 55 percent minimum.

Source of the shares: CPP Investments Annual Report 2026 (fiscal year ended 31 March 2026), Management's Discussion and Analysis: risk targets; the 2025 report shows the same table and the benchmark change — www.cppinvestments.com. The 2026 report repeats the Market Risk Target table: base CPP 85 percent global public equities and 15 percent Canadian government bonds (minimum 60/40); additional CPP 55/45 (minimum 45/55). It says the equity-and-bond mix was introduced in fiscal 2007 at 65/35, that the board approved raising the base CPP to 85/15 in fiscal 2015 with a phase-in from fiscal 2016 to 2018, and that the additional CPP started at 50/50 on 1 January 2019 and moved to 55/45 from fiscal 2022. The targets are reviewed at least every three years after the chief actuary's triennial report; the last review (fiscal 2024) changed nothing and the next, using the report of December 2025, is due in fiscal 2027. The 2025 report (page 18 chart) gives the base path 65/35 (fiscal 2015, made of 55 global equities excluding Canada, 10 Canadian equities, 30 Canadian government bonds and 5 G7 government bonds), then 72/28, 78/22, 82.5/17.5 and 85/15 from fiscal 2019, and explains that the 85/15 mix stopped being the performance benchmark in fiscal 2025.

How we model it

US large companies (S&P 500)42.5%
Developed markets outside the US34%
Intermediate government bonds (10 y)15%
Emerging markets8.5%

APPROXIMATION. Our series are US-dollar and have no Canadian assets. 'Global public equities including Canada' (85 percent) is split with US equities at half of the equity part (0.425 of the whole, as stated by the Boston College Center for Retirement Research), and the rest is split 80/20 between intl_dev (which in our data covers developed markets outside the US, so Canada is inside it) and em; this 80/20 is our assumption, not a published number. Canadian government bonds (15 percent) are replaced by bond_mid (intermediate US government bonds). Currency effects (the fund reports in Canadian dollars) are not modelled. This maps the Reference Portfolio / Market Risk Target only, not the actual CPP Investments fund, which holds large private equity, infrastructure, real estate, credit and leverage positions. The half-and-half US share of the equity part is taken from the Boston College Center for Retirement Research article on the Fund's benchmark, which states that US equities are half of the equity holdings of the reference mix. Since fiscal 2025 the performance yardstick of the real Fund is the Benchmark Portfolios (an aggregate of public-market indexes for each strategy), and the 2026 report says the 85/15 mix is only an expression of targeted market risk; so the mapping tracks a risk target, not the Fund's own benchmark.

For a euro investor

The same portfolio bought with euros, without currency hedging: monthly returns converted at the end-of-month rate (German mark before 1999), inflation of the euro area. History in euros from 1953-10 to 2026-09.

Per year in euros8.7 %
After euro inflation5.9 %
Worst drop in euros−53.7 %
Worst year in euros−31.4 % (1974)
Safe withdrawal, 30 years, dollars3.42 % (1929-09)
Safe withdrawal, 30 years, euros2.68 % (1968-12)

The largest first-year withdrawal, then growing with inflation, that lasted 30 years from every monthly start. Test withdrawals for this portfolio →

How to build it with European funds

Examples of UCITS funds sold in the EU for each part of the portfolio. They track similar markets, not exactly the indices of our calculation.

PartShareExample funds (ISIN)
US large companies (S&P 500)42.5%iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) IE00B5BMR087
Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (USD) Distributing IE00B3XXRP09
Developed markets outside the US (closest match)34%iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) IE00B4K48X80
iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETF IE00B4L5YX21
Intermediate government bonds (10 y)15%iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10yr UCITS ETF (Dist) IE00B1FZS798
Emerging markets8.5%iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF (Acc) IE00BKM4GZ66

These are examples, not recommendations. Check the fund's key information document, costs and taxes with your broker before buying. Names and ISINs checked on justETF on 4 November 2026; Udak receives nothing from these funds.

The idea

The risk target is chosen so that the CPP can pay promised benefits at contribution rates that are stable across generations. The plan sets the level of market risk by modelling, over 75 years, the effect of investment returns on contributions and benefits for the partly funded base CPP and the fully funded additional CPP, giving more weight to adverse outcomes. The Fund explains that the base CPP can carry more market risk (85/15) than the additional CPP (55/45) because the latter is fully funded and therefore more sensitive to return shortfalls. The two-asset Reference Portfolio makes the risk target simple and visible; the point of active management is to earn returns above what that simple, low-cost portfolio would give.

How people buy it

A simple version is an all-world or ACWI-type equity index fund (85 percent) plus a Canadian government bond fund (15 percent). CPP Investments itself does not invest this way; it uses internal and external active managers and a total-portfolio framework in which the Reference Portfolio is a risk target and, until fiscal 2024, a benchmark. The actual fund at 31 March 2025 held net assets of 714.4 billion Canadian dollars.

Rebalancing as published

The risk target is reviewed at least every three years after the Chief Actuary's triennial report; the last review (fiscal 2024) kept 85/15 and 55/45. The Reference Portfolio is a measurement concept and has no published rebalancing rule. The Benchmark Portfolios (from fiscal 2025) are re-aggregated annually from index weights tied to the target weight of each investment strategy.

Variants

Criticism

Through the eras

EraDatesTotalPer yearWorst dropS&P 500
Roaring Twenties boom1926-07 – 1929-08+127.3 %+29.6 %−5.0 %+153.7 %
Wall Street crash and Great Contraction1929-09 – 1932-07−71.0 %−34.6 %−77.0 %−78.2 %
New Deal recovery1932-08 – 1937-02+218.0 %+28.7 %−24.6 %+268.7 %
Recession within the Depression1937-03 – 1938-03−42.6 %−40.1 %−42.6 %−49.5 %
Rearmament and World War II1938-04 – 1945-09+168.8 %+14.1 %−24.0 %+205.8 %
Postwar expansion1945-10 – 1965-12+897.4 %+12.0 %−20.9 %+1212.9 %
Golden age of the 1950s1950-01 – 1959-12+338.5 %+15.9 %−11.9 %+438.8 %
Go-go years and nifty-fifty1966-01 – 1968-12+29.9 %+9.1 %−13.1 %+34.0 %
The Great Inflation (stagflation)1969-01 – 1982-07+92.2 %+4.9 %−40.2 %+84.6 %
1973-74 oil shock and bear market1973-01 – 1974-12−35.3 %−19.5 %−40.2 %−41.7 %
Second oil shock and the Volcker disinflation1979-01 – 1982-08+54.7 %+12.6 %−12.1 %+59.2 %
Great bull market in stocks and bonds1982-08 – 1999-12+1246.5 %+16.1 %−26.4 %+2060.4 %
Black Monday1987-08 – 1987-12−19.0 %—−26.4 %−21.8 %
Savings-and-loan crisis and 1990 recession1990-07 – 1991-03+1.8 %—−16.3 %+7.4 %
1994 bond market massacre1994-02 – 1994-12−3.5 %—−5.8 %−3.2 %
Asian and Russian financial crises1997-07 – 1998-10+7.9 %+5.9 %−13.4 %+22.4 %
Dot-com bubble and crash2000-03 – 2002-10−29.9 %−12.5 %−35.4 %−37.2 %
Recovery and housing boom2002-11 – 2007-09+133.0 %+18.8 %−6.2 %+97.0 %
Global financial crisis2007-10 – 2009-03−38.3 %−27.5 %−44.6 %−44.7 %
The decade after the crisis2009-04 – 2019-12+240.9 %+12.1 %−15.4 %+411.2 %
Fourth-quarter 2018 sell-off2018-09 – 2018-12−10.8 %—−10.9 %−14.4 %
Covid crash and stimulus boom2020-02 – 2021-12+33.8 %+16.4 %−16.3 %+53.6 %
Inflation shock and rate hikes2022-01 – 2022-12−17.5 %−17.5 %−24.4 %−19.9 %

Calendar years

-37%49%1927: +28.2%1928: +33.4%1929: -11.8%1930: -23.9%19301931: -37.1%1932: -6.4%1933: +49.0%1934: +3.6%1935: +38.9%1936: +27.7%1937: -29.0%1938: +24.6%1939: +2.7%1940: -5.5%19401941: -9.2%1942: +14.3%1943: +24.4%1944: +18.6%1945: +33.5%1946: -5.2%1947: +3.0%1948: +2.1%1949: +17.5%1950: +25.6%19501951: +17.8%1952: +11.7%1953: +1.4%1954: +43.2%1955: +21.4%1956: +6.8%1957: -7.4%1958: +37.9%1959: +10.5%1960: +2.8%19601961: +23.2%1962: -7.8%1963: +18.1%1964: +14.2%1965: +12.4%1966: -6.7%1967: +23.9%1968: +12.3%1969: -10.1%1970: +2.8%19701971: +15.4%1972: +14.7%1973: -15.9%1974: -23.0%1975: +33.4%1976: +25.2%1977: -2.6%1978: +6.9%1979: +20.2%1980: +28.1%19801981: -2.0%1982: +24.1%1983: +19.5%1984: +5.5%1985: +32.2%1986: +17.2%1987: +1.0%1988: +16.3%1989: +28.9%1990: -6.1%19901991: +24.0%1992: +0.4%1993: +24.5%1994: +1.3%1995: +21.9%1996: +11.8%1997: +13.6%1998: +16.5%1999: +27.5%2000: -10.7%20002001: -11.3%2002: -11.3%2003: +33.1%2004: +16.0%2005: +11.8%2006: +18.4%2007: +11.9%2008: -31.6%2009: +29.0%2010: +14.5%20102011: -3.2%2012: +14.9%2013: +21.5%2014: +5.0%2015: -0.9%2016: +7.8%2017: +22.1%2018: -8.0%2019: +23.2%2020: +16.9%20202021: +13.8%2022: -17.5%2023: +18.4%2024: +12.2%2025: +22.0%

Any N-year period

Any N-year periodWorst10 % worse thanMedian10 % better thanBest
1 y (1192)−57.7 %−10.0 %+12.3 %+30.3 %+123.4 %
3 y (1168)−36.4 %−2.2 %+10.2 %+19.2 %+38.2 %
5 y (1144)−15.2 %+1.6 %+9.7 %+16.7 %+30.0 %
10 y (1084)−3.3 %+4.2 %+9.2 %+14.6 %+17.7 %
15 y (1024)+0.7 %+5.9 %+9.4 %+14.0 %+16.8 %
20 y (964)+2.5 %+6.8 %+9.9 %+13.1 %+15.3 %
30 y (844)+7.1 %+8.4 %+10.0 %+11.7 %+12.9 %

How it behaved in history

Published results (by others)

What we could not verify

Sources

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Calculated on historical data. Past results do not predict the future. Models before the 1990s use stand-ins for classes that had no index yet; fees, taxes and fund costs are not included. This is mathematics, not an investment recommendation.