Collins 75/25
J.L. Collins Simple Path to Wealth (75/25 VTSAX/VBTLX)
Where it stands today
Our calculation, 1926-07 – 2026-09
Growth of $10,000
Where it came from
J.L. Collins writes the blog jlcollinsnh.com. The blog's own posts show activity from at least June 2011: a post of 14 June 2011 ('What We Own and Why We Own It') lists his personal holdings at that time as 45% VTSAX, 25% VBTLX, 5% cash and 25% real estate (VGSLX), a REIT fund he later exited. The 2011 mix was therefore not the 75/25 mix; it was a personal holding, not a recommendation.
The core of the advice is in his Stock Series (for example Part VI, 12 May 2012, 'Portfolio Ideas to Build and Keep Your Wealth', and Part XII, 1 October 2012, on bonds). He describes two portfolios: a 'Wealth Building' portfolio that is 100% in VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral shares), and a 'Wealth Preservation and Building' portfolio that adds a bond index fund, VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Admiral shares). In the version of Part VI I read, bonds were 20% of that second portfolio; in later posts and comments he states the target as 75% VTSAX and 25% bonds and cash.
In a post of 25 September 2018 ('What We Own and Why We Own It', 2018 edition) he gave his actual mix as 76% VTSAX, 23% VBTLX and 1% cash (VMMXX), and stated the target as 75% VTSAX and 25% bonds plus cash. He says he does not worry when the percentages drift, rebalances about once a year (on his wife's birthday), and would act sooner only after a very large market move (about 20%). In that post he also notes that his blog and book income now cover his costs, so by his own definition he could argue for returning to 100% stocks; he has not done so because he doubts the income will last.
His reasons for bonds are stated plainly in the blog: bonds are a hedge against deflation (when prices fall, the fixed payments are worth more), they smooth the ride, they pay interest, and they give capital to move into stocks in bear markets. He also says bonds are hurt by rising rates and inflation, and that 'there is nothing magic about 25%' (comment of 20 July 2013); each investor should adjust the share to their own needs. He avoided TIPS (comment of 1 October 2012) and in a post of 20 December 2017 explained why he went back from corporate bond funds to VBTLX after about seven years: bonds are meant to offset stocks, not to chase performance.
The book 'The Simple Path to Wealth' turns the blog posts into a guide. Publisher listings show a Revised and Expanded Edition published in July 2025 by Authors Equity and a claim of over one million copies sold; I did not find the date of the first edition in a source I could open (commonly given as 2016), and I could not read the book's allocation chapter itself. The retirement allocation described here is therefore taken from the author's blog, not from the book text.
What is in it
| VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Admiral) | 75% | target stated by Collins for the wealth-preservation phase (retirement or not needing to add more); actual holding 76% in Sept 2018 |
| VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Admiral) plus a little cash (VMMXX) | 25% | target 25% bonds and cash; actual 23% bonds and 1% cash in Sept 2018 |
How we model it
| US large companies (S&P 500) | 75% |
| US bond market (aggregate) | 25% |
For a euro investor
How to build it with European funds
| Part | Share | Example funds (ISIN) |
|---|---|---|
| US large companies (S&P 500) | 75% | iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) IE00B5BMR087Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (USD) Distributing IE00B3XXRP09 |
| US bond market (aggregate) (closest match) | 25% | iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) IE00BDBRDM35iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Dist) IE00B3F81409 |
The idea
Own the whole US stock market through one low-cost index fund because stocks power long-run returns; add a bond index fund only when the portfolio must be preserved and its fluctuations hurt (late in the accumulation, or at retirement). Bonds are a counterweight and deflation hedge, not a source of performance.
How people buy it
VTSAX and VBTLX (Vanguard Admiral mutual funds), or the ETFs VTI and BND; a money market fund (VMMXX) for cash.
Rebalancing as published
About once a year; Collins does not mind drift and would rebalance sooner only after a very large move. Bond holdings can be used to buy stocks after drops.
Variants
- Wealth Building portfolio: 100% VTSAX, for the accumulation years (blog Stock Series Part VI).
- Wealth Preservation: 75/25 VTSAX/VBTLX (target); earlier versions of the blog post show 80/20.
- Collins's actual holdings: 45% VTSAX, 25% VBTLX, 5% cash, 25% real estate fund in June 2011; 76/23/1 in September 2018; about 70/25 with 5% cash on 21 December 2017 (his reply in the comments).
- Third-party 'Simple Path to Wealth' lazy portfolios use 75% VTI / 25% BND; they are not Collins's own holdings.
- Bond tent: I found no source in which Collins uses this term or prescribes a rising-then-falling bond share around retirement; I describe it only as a user-built variant, not as part of his advice.
Criticism
- At 75% stocks the portfolio is still aggressive for people close to or in retirement; a commenter on the 2018 post made this point and Collins replied that allocation is personal and that he invests with a multi-generation horizon.
- 100% in one US stock fund gives no foreign-stock exposure; Collins argues the US total market already holds multinational companies.
- Bonds in a rising-rate or high-inflation era can fall together with stocks (as Collins himself notes about bonds and inflation).
- The 'rule' changes between sources (80/20 in an older post version, 75/25 later, 76/23/1 actual), so the allocation is not a precise formula.
Through the eras
| Era | Dates | Total | Per year | Worst drop | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roaring Twenties boom | 1926-07 – 1929-08 | +110.8 % | +26.5 % | −4.4 % | +153.7 % |
| Wall Street crash and Great Contraction | 1929-09 – 1932-07 | −65.4 % | −30.5 % | −71.6 % | −78.2 % |
| New Deal recovery | 1932-08 – 1937-02 | +187.3 % | +25.9 % | −21.6 % | +268.7 % |
| Recession within the Depression | 1937-03 – 1938-03 | −37.8 % | −35.5 % | −37.8 % | −49.5 % |
| Rearmament and World War II | 1938-04 – 1945-09 | +146.3 % | +12.8 % | −21.2 % | +205.8 % |
| Postwar expansion | 1945-10 – 1965-12 | +723.9 % | +11.0 % | −18.6 % | +1212.9 % |
| Golden age of the 1950s | 1950-01 – 1959-12 | +280.2 % | +14.3 % | −10.6 % | +438.8 % |
| Go-go years and nifty-fifty | 1966-01 – 1968-12 | +27.0 % | +8.3 % | −11.8 % | +34.0 % |
| The Great Inflation (stagflation) | 1969-01 – 1982-07 | +96.2 % | +5.1 % | −35.8 % | +84.6 % |
| 1973-74 oil shock and bear market | 1973-01 – 1974-12 | −30.8 % | −16.8 % | −35.8 % | −41.7 % |
| Second oil shock and the Volcker disinflation | 1979-01 – 1982-08 | +51.6 % | +12.0 % | −11.4 % | +59.2 % |
| Great bull market in stocks and bonds | 1982-08 – 1999-12 | +1506.2 % | +17.3 % | −23.7 % | +2060.4 % |
| Black Monday | 1987-08 – 1987-12 | −16.8 % | — | −23.7 % | −21.8 % |
| Savings-and-loan crisis and 1990 recession | 1990-07 – 1991-03 | +8.2 % | — | −11.8 % | +7.4 % |
| 1994 bond market massacre | 1994-02 – 1994-12 | −3.4 % | — | −7.0 % | −3.2 % |
| Asian and Russian financial crises | 1997-07 – 1998-10 | +20.5 % | +15.0 % | −12.8 % | +22.4 % |
| Dot-com bubble and crash | 2000-03 – 2002-10 | −23.7 % | −9.7 % | −31.4 % | −37.2 % |
| Recovery and housing boom | 2002-11 – 2007-09 | +76.0 % | +12.2 % | −6.0 % | +97.0 % |
| Global financial crisis | 2007-10 – 2009-03 | −32.5 % | −23.1 % | −38.0 % | −44.7 % |
| The decade after the crisis | 2009-04 – 2019-12 | +285.1 % | +13.4 % | −12.3 % | +411.2 % |
| Fourth-quarter 2018 sell-off | 2018-09 – 2018-12 | −10.7 % | — | −10.7 % | −14.4 % |
| Covid crash and stimulus boom | 2020-02 – 2021-12 | +40.1 % | +19.2 % | −14.8 % | +53.6 % |
| Inflation shock and rate hikes | 2022-01 – 2022-12 | −18.2 % | −18.2 % | −22.2 % | −19.9 % |
Calendar years
Any N-year period
| Any N-year period | Worst | 10 % worse than | Median | 10 % better than | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 y (1192) | −51.9 % | −8.7 % | +11.8 % | +28.5 % | +104.4 % |
| 3 y (1168) | −32.0 % | −1.6 % | +9.9 % | +18.8 % | +34.2 % |
| 5 y (1144) | −12.6 % | +1.5 % | +9.8 % | +16.3 % | +26.8 % |
| 10 y (1084) | −2.1 % | +4.3 % | +9.6 % | +14.7 % | +17.4 % |
| 15 y (1024) | +1.3 % | +5.7 % | +9.7 % | +14.1 % | +17.2 % |
| 20 y (964) | +2.8 % | +6.6 % | +9.5 % | +13.2 % | +16.4 % |
| 30 y (844) | +6.8 % | +8.6 % | +9.8 % | +11.7 % | +13.2 % |
How it behaved in history
- 2011 to 2018 (author's own holdings). Collins's disclosed mix moved from 45% stock / 25% bond / 5% cash / 25% real estate (June 2011) to roughly 75/25 (2017) and 76/23/1 (September 2018). This is how the author held his own money, not a backtest. jlcollinsnh.com
- rate-rise and inflation periods. Collins writes that bonds lose value when interest rates or inflation rise, which is why he calls them a deflation hedge and not an inflation hedge. He did not publish era-by-era numbers in the posts I read. jlcollinsnh.com
Published results (by others)
- Collins says that 100% stocks and 75/25 have produced almost the same results over time (his own statement in a comment, no numbers) (unspecified): qualitative jlcollinsnh.com
What we could not verify
- I could not read the book's allocation chapter; the 75/25 retirement target is taken from the author's blog, and the first-edition date (often given as 2016) is not confirmed by a source I opened.
- No source found where Collins himself prescribes a 'bond tent'; this variant is not modelled.
- The 2012 version of Stock Series Part VI shows bonds at 20% in the preservation portfolio, while the 2018 post says 25% bonds and cash; the date of the change in his recommendation is unknown.
- The jlcollinsnh.com pages showed later-update dates (2023); the comment dates quoted are from the comments themselves.
- No dated published returns found for this exact mix.
Sources
- jlcollinsnh.com
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2018/09/25/what-we-own-and-why-we-own-it-2018/ - jlcollinsnh.com
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2011/06/14/what-we-own-and-why-we-own-it/ - jlcollinsnh.com
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/05/12/stocks-part-vi-portfolio-ideas-to-build-and-keep-your-wealth/ - jlcollinsnh.com
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/10/01/stocks-part-xii-bonds-and-a-bit-on-reits/ - jlcollinsnh.com
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2017/12/20/the-bond-experiment-return-to-vbtlx/ - www.simonandschuster.co.uk
https://www.simonandschuster.co.uk/books/The-Simple-Path-to-Wealth-(Revised-Expanded-2025-Edition)/JL-Collins/9798893310474
Calculated on historical data. Past results do not predict the future. Models before the 1990s use stand-ins for classes that had no index yet; fees, taxes and fund costs are not included. This is mathematics, not an investment recommendation.