ABP (Netherlands)

ABP strategic asset allocation (Strategic Investment Plan 2024-2026)

Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP (Netherlands), investments run with APG · Strategic weights for 2024-2026, as printed in the 2025 annual report (published 2026)

Live account on this site. This portfolio is also tracked here with a virtual $100,000 since 21.10.2026. Live account on this site →

Where it stands today

Data through 2026-09. Updated every month.

Since January+5.7 %

Last 12 months+7.0 %

Last 5 years, per year+3.6 %

Now below the peak−3.1 %

Place by 12 months47 / 60

Our calculation, 1984-02 – 2026-09

Per year9.3 %

Real (after inflation)6.3 %

Volatility9.4 %

Worst drop−32.1 %

Worst year−19.0 % (2022)

Best year28.5 %

Worst 12 months−28.2 %

Positive years83 %

6 % of this history is calculated with stand-ins for asset classes that did not exist yet (see “How we model it” and the page about data). Without stand-ins the history starts in 1993.

Growth of $10,000

ABP (Netherlands): $449,902S&P 500: $1,163,109

Where it came from

ABP is the pension fund for Dutch government and education employees and is usually ranked among the largest pension funds in the world. Its annual report for 2025 gives total assets of about 533 billion euro at the end of 2025 (down from 542 billion at the end of 2024). It is a funded defined-benefit-style scheme whose investment policy is built around a funding ratio (assets over pension liabilities): 123.5 percent at the end of 2025, with a policy funding ratio of 118.3 percent (Q4 2025 report; annual report summary).

ABP does not publish a single textbook 'model portfolio'. What it does publish, in the annual report chapter on the strategic asset allocation, is a table of 'strategic weights' taken from its Strategic Investment Plan for the period 2024-2026. The weights are: developed-market equities 28.0%, emerging-market equities 4.0% (equities 32.0%); real estate 10.0%, infrastructure 7.0%, private equity 6.0%, commodities 4.0% (alternatives 27.0%); government bonds 10.0%, long-dated government bonds 13.0%, corporate bonds 11.0%, emerging-market bonds 4.0%, mortgages 2.0% (fixed income 40.0%); overlay/cash 1.0%. The table sums to 100%. The report calls the weighting of equities, fixed income and alternatives the 'strategic asset allocation' and says the board chooses it to balance a purchasing-power-preserving and a stable pension.

The same chapter says ABP is gradually moving towards the strategic allocation of the renewed pension scheme (the Dutch transition to a new pension system), which was set in 2024 on the basis of participants' risk attitude. Under the new scheme the mix will shift from liquid to illiquid assets, and ABP says it will among other things invest more in Dutch housing. The new-scheme weights are not printed in the document, so the 2024-2026 table is the best published statement of the policy mix.

Two overlays sit on top of the asset weights and are not asset classes: an interest-rate and inflation hedge (ABP says it hedges the interest-rate risk of almost 50% of the funding ratio through bonds and the overlay) and a partial currency hedge of the dollar. In 2025 these overlays lost money (-16.1 billion euro contribution for the overlay; the interest-rate hedge alone -21.7 billion) because rates rose, which is why the total 2025 return was -1.6% even though the portfolio before overlay returned +1.4%. Our mapping ignores the overlay and uses only the strategic asset weights.

Actual weights at 31 December 2025 were close to the strategic ones: fixed income 40.0%, equities 31.2%, real estate 9.2%, other alternatives 19.5% (private equity 8.4, infrastructure 6.2, commodities 4.3, hedge funds being wound down 0.5), overlay/cash 0.1%. Against the plan, private equity, infrastructure and commodities together (about 19%) run a little above the 17% strategic weight and real estate and equities a little below. Since 2024 ABP has also run its developed-market equity book against a custom index based on its own 'ABP Universe' of investable companies; in 2025 that index trailed the broad market index by 1.7 percentage points, which the report calls disappointing.

What is in it

Developed-market equities	28%	strategic weight 2024-2026
Emerging-market equities	4%
Real estate	10%
Infrastructure	7%
Private equity	6%
Commodities	4%
Government bonds	10%
Long-dated government bonds	13%
Corporate bonds	11%
Emerging-market bonds	4%
Mortgages	2%
Overlay/Cash	1%

Source of the shares: ABP Jaarverslag 2025 (Dutch annual report 2025), chapter on strategic asset allocation, 'Strategische gewichten (o.b.v. Strategisch Investment Plan) 2024-2026' — www.abp.nl. Table on p.29 lists the strategic weights by category for 2024-2026; the subtotals printed there are equities 32%, alternatives 27% (real estate, infrastructure, private equity, commodities) and fixed income 40%, overlay/cash 1%. Weights are stated as exact percentages, no ranges are given in the same table.

How we model it

US large companies (S&P 500)	17%
Real estate (REITs)	17%
Corporate bonds	15%
Long-term government bonds (20+ y)	13%
Developed markets outside the US	11%
Intermediate government bonds (10 y)	10%
US small companies	6%
Emerging markets	4%
Commodities	4%
US bond market (aggregate)	2%
Cash (Treasury bills)	1%

Developed-market equities 28% are split roughly 62/38 into us_large 17% and intl_dev 11% as a rough cap-weight proxy (our assumption; ABP's index is its own custom index). Emerging-market equities 4% -> em. Real estate 10% and infrastructure 7% -> reit 17% (we have no infrastructure or direct property series; equity REITs are the closest listed proxy, as in the CalPERS model). Private equity 6% -> us_small (public stand-in used in the Harvard and CalPERS models). Commodities 4% -> commodities. Government bonds 10% -> bond_mid; long-dated government bonds 13% -> bond_long (ABP's benchmark for the long bonds is long Euro swap/government duration; our series are US Treasury). Corporate bonds 11% and emerging-market bonds 4% -> bond_corp 15% (emerging-market debt has credit-like behaviour; we have no EM-debt series). Mortgages 2% -> bond_agg. Overlay/cash 1% -> cash. Not modelled: euro currency, the interest-rate and inflation overlay, the currency hedge, and the Dutch/European focus. Weights are the 2024-2026 plan; the post-2026 weights of the new scheme are not published in the sources opened.

For a euro investor

The same portfolio bought with euros, without currency hedging: monthly returns converted at the end-of-month rate (German mark before 1999), inflation of the euro area. History in euros from 1984-02 to 2026-09.

Per year in euros8.1 %

After euro inflation5.8 %

Worst drop in euros−33.3 %

Worst year in euros−19.3 % (1987)

Safe withdrawal, 30 years, dollars6.88 % (1987-03)

Safe withdrawal, 30 years, euros5.34 % (1985-03)

The largest first-year withdrawal, then growing with inflation, that lasted 30 years from every monthly start. Test withdrawals for this portfolio →

How to build it with European funds

Examples of UCITS funds sold in the EU for each part of the portfolio. They track similar markets, not exactly the indices of our calculation.

Part	Share	Example funds (ISIN)
US large companies (S&P 500)	17%	iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) `IE00B5BMR087` Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (USD) Distributing `IE00B3XXRP09`
Real estate (REITs)	17%	iShares US Property Yield UCITS ETF `IE00B1FZSF77` iShares Developed Markets Property Yield UCITS ETF `IE00B1FZS350`
Corporate bonds	15%	iShares USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (Dist) `IE0032895942`
Long-term government bonds (20+ y)	13%	iShares USD Treasury Bond 20+yr UCITS ETF USD (Dist) `IE00BSKRJZ44`
Developed markets outside the US (closest match)	11%	iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF EUR (Acc) `IE00B4K48X80` iShares Core MSCI Japan IMI UCITS ETF `IE00B4L5YX21`
Intermediate government bonds (10 y)	10%	iShares USD Treasury Bond 7-10yr UCITS ETF (Dist) `IE00B1FZS798`
US small companies	6%	SPDR Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap UCITS ETF `IE00BJ38QD84` iShares MSCI USA Small Cap ESG Enhanced CTB UCITS ETF USD (Acc) `IE00B3VWM098`
Emerging markets	4%	iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI UCITS ETF (Acc) `IE00BKM4GZ66`
Commodities	4%	iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF `IE00BDFL4P12`
US bond market (aggregate) (closest match)	2%	iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF EUR Hedged (Acc) `IE00BDBRDM35` iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Dist) `IE00B3F81409`
Cash (Treasury bills)	1%	Xtrackers II EUR Overnight Rate Swap UCITS ETF 1C `LU0290358497` iShares USD Treasury Bond 0-1yr UCITS ETF (Acc) `IE00BGSF1X88`

These are examples, not recommendations. Check the fund's key information document, costs and taxes with your broker before buying. Names and ISINs checked on justETF on 4 November 2026; Udak receives nothing from these funds.

The idea

A large liability-driven fund: about 40% in fixed income and a swap overlay to hedge a large part of the interest-rate risk of the liabilities, about a third in listed equities and a quarter or more in real assets and private markets to earn the return needed to keep pensions rising with prices (ABP's stated aim is a pension that is both purchasing-power-preserving and stable).

How people buy it

Individual investments are made through external and internal mandates run by the asset manager APG; equities follow an ABP-specific index (ABP Universum), real estate includes Dutch housing, plus private equity, infrastructure and commodities. Not a retail product: a retail investor would approximate it with a global equity ETF, a euro government and corporate bond fund, a REIT fund and a commodity fund.

Rebalancing as published

Not published in the sources opened. The report says the executive board monitors execution of the strategic policy and steers where needed; tactical changes to the mix and active asset allocation are possible (the table of 2025 results shows an 'active asset allocation' line).

Variants

The renewed-scheme strategic allocation set in 2024 (not printed in the document opened).
Larger illiquid share planned under the new scheme, including more Dutch housing (annual report 2025).

Criticism

Negative 2025 return (-1.6%) came from the rate and dollar overlay, not the asset mix; the overlay hedges liabilities, so a portfolio return alone is not the right yardstick (ABP annual report 2025).
The custom developed-market equity index trailed the broad market index by 1.7 points in 2025 (ABP's own wording: disappointing).
Private categories lagged their listed benchmarks in 2025 (private equity -4.2% vs +11.8% benchmark), partly because of lagged valuations (annual report 2025).

Through the eras

Era	Dates	Total	Per year	Worst drop	S&P 500
Black Monday	1987-08 – 1987-12	−11.2 %	—	−15.3 %	−21.8 %
Savings-and-loan crisis and 1990 recession	1990-07 – 1991-03	+6.7 %	—	−8.9 %	+7.4 %
1994 bond market massacre	1994-02 – 1994-12	−4.1 %	—	−6.0 %	−3.2 %
Asian and Russian financial crises	1997-07 – 1998-10	+8.9 %	+6.6 %	−8.6 %	+22.4 %
Dot-com bubble and crash	2000-03 – 2002-10	+4.4 %	+1.6 %	−6.0 %	−37.2 %
Recovery and housing boom	2002-11 – 2007-09	+101.4 %	+15.3 %	−5.6 %	+97.0 %
Global financial crisis	2007-10 – 2009-03	−26.7 %	−18.7 %	−32.1 %	−44.7 %
The decade after the crisis	2009-04 – 2019-12	+208.7 %	+11.1 %	−7.7 %	+411.2 %
Fourth-quarter 2018 sell-off	2018-09 – 2018-12	−7.7 %	—	−7.7 %	−14.4 %
Covid crash and stimulus boom	2020-02 – 2021-12	+25.9 %	+12.8 %	−11.6 %	+53.6 %
Inflation shock and rate hikes	2022-01 – 2022-12	−19.0 %	−19.0 %	−22.8 %	−19.9 %

Calendar years

Any N-year period

Any N-year period	Worst	10 % worse than	Median	10 % better than	Best
1 y (501)	−28.2 %	−1.2 %	+10.1 %	+21.5 %	+41.7 %
3 y (477)	−6.1 %	+2.7 %	+9.4 %	+14.9 %	+24.4 %
5 y (453)	+0.9 %	+5.0 %	+8.9 %	+13.5 %	+17.9 %
10 y (393)	+4.4 %	+6.2 %	+9.3 %	+11.8 %	+13.9 %
15 y (333)	+5.4 %	+7.1 %	+9.0 %	+11.3 %	+13.1 %
20 y (273)	+6.7 %	+7.1 %	+9.0 %	+10.9 %	+11.9 %
30 y (153)	+7.6 %	+8.1 %	+9.2 %	+10.2 %	+11.1 %

How it behaved in history

2008. ABP reported a negative first-half 2008 return of 5.1% and, by late October 2008, a funding ratio below the legal minimum; one report cites an 11.5% loss in the last quarter alone. A full-year return was not found. www-t.investmentofficer.nl
2022. First substantial negative return since 2008 according to ABP's own annual review: -17.6%, assets 552 -> 459 billion euro, but funding ratio roughly unchanged because liabilities fell with higher rates. www.abp.nl
2025. Strong equity year but a stronger euro (dollar -12%) and higher long rates hurt: -1.6% total, long government bonds -6.7%. www.abp.nl

Published results (by others)

ABP total portfolio return 2025, 2024 (2025; 2024): -1.6% in 2025; +8.4% in 2024 www.abp.nl
ABP total return in 2022 (rates up, equities and bonds down) (2022): -17.6% (2021: +11.1%) www.abp.nl
Average annual return over the ten years to 2025 (2016-2025): 4.4% a year www.abp.nl
2025 returns by category: long government bonds -6.7%, equities +6.2%, private equity -4.2%, commodities +10.0%, real estate -5.1% (2025): see claim www.abp.nl

What we could not verify

Weights are 2024-2026 strategic weights printed in the Dutch annual report 2025; the English quarterly report appendix gives only actual weights. The table was read from text extraction of the PDF, which is two-column; the numbers sum exactly to 100% so the reading is internally consistent.
In the strategic table the subtotal 'alternatives 27.0%' includes real estate (10), infrastructure (7), private equity (6) and commodities (4); the actual-weights table lists real estate separately. I use the strategic table as printed.
The new-scheme (post-transition) strategic allocation is not published in the document opened.
A search snippet attributed an older 44% fixed income / 36% equities / 20% alternatives strategic mix to IPE; I could not verify its date or source, so it is not used.
No full-year 2008 return and no long-run year-by-year history found. Interest-rate overlay detail is not given in weights.
The English quarterly report PDF could be read only through text extraction; ABP site structure may change.

Sources

www.abp.nl https://www.abp.nl/content/dam/abp/documenten/jaarverslagen/ABP-jaarverslag-2025-nederlands.pdf
www.abp.nl https://www.abp.nl/english/press-releases/2026/january/quarterly-report-q4-2025
www.abp.nl https://www.abp.nl/content/dam/abp/documenten/persberichten/quarterly-report-q4-2025.pdf
www.abp.nl https://www.abp.nl/content/dam/abp/documenten/jaarverslagen/Annualreview-ABP-%202022-DEF.pdf
www.ipe.com https://www.ipe.com/news/esg-exclusions-depress-abp-returns/10136459.article
www-t.investmentofficer.nl https://www-t.investmentofficer.nl/nl/nieuws/dekkingsgraad-abp-onder-minimum

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Calculated on historical data. Past results do not predict the future. Models before the 1990s use stand-ins for classes that had no index yet; fees, taxes and fund costs are not included. This is mathematics, not an investment recommendation.