S&P 500: 200-day moving average

Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.

Now

Close 11/06/2026735.29

200-day average730.38

50-day average765.68

Distance from 200-day+0.7 %

On this side sinceabove · 04/08/2026

50-day vs 200-daygolden cross

From the 1-year high−5.6 %

From the high since 2019−5.6 %

Change over 1 year+9.7 %

RSI (14 days)35

Price and moving averages, last two years

Price (SPY fund)50-day200-day

Golden and death crosses since 2019

A golden cross is the day the 50-day average rises above the 200-day one; a death cross is the opposite. What the price did over the next three and six months:

Date	Cross	Next 3 months	Next 6 months
07/01/2025	golden cross	+7.9 %	+11.2 %
04/14/2025	death cross	+15.8 %	+22.8 %
02/02/2023	golden cross	−2.8 %	+7.2 %
03/14/2022	death cross	−10.1 %	−5.7 %
07/09/2020	golden cross	+8.4 %	+20.6 %
03/30/2020	death cross	+16.4 %	+27.7 %

The trend rule over the long history

Monthly data with dividends from 1927-05: hold the market while its month-end level is above the average of the last 10 months (the monthly version of the 200-day rule, as in Mebane Faber's 2007 study), otherwise hold cash. No costs or taxes. (1927-05 – 2026-09)

Months above the average73 %

Next month after “above”, per year+12.3 %

Next month after “below”, per year+5.1 %

Switches per year1.5

Trend rule, per year+9.8 %

Buy and hold, per year+10.3 %

Trend rule, worst drop−42.9 %

Buy and hold, worst drop−83.7 %

What the 200-day moving average is

The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.

It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.

Bots that trade on this kind of rule, with open accounts:

The 200-day moving average strategy on the S&P 500

Hold stocks while the index is above its average price of the last 200 days, and step aside when it falls below.

The golden cross: 50-day and 200-day moving averages

Stocks are held while the 50-day average is above the 200-day one. The opposite crossing, the death cross, is the signal to leave.

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This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.