The 200-day moving average strategy on the S&P 500
Hold stocks while the index is above its average price of the last 200 days, and step aside when it falls below.
The rule
Each day compare the index with its 200-day average price. Above: be in stocks. Below: sell and wait in safe short-term bonds until it climbs back.
Why people use it
Long bear markets spend most of their time below the 200-day average, so the rule keeps you out of the worst part of them. It is simple, public and needs no forecast.
Where it hurts
In a sideways market the price crosses the average again and again: you sell low, buy back higher and lose a little each time. After sharp V-shaped falls it returns late and misses the start of the recovery.
How our bot runs it
The bot checks SPY against its 200-day simple average at every close. Above it holds SPY, below it holds BIL (short Treasury bills). The switch is made at the next open.
Live account
A virtual $100,000 account that follows this rule. Every trade is on the bot's page.
| Bot | Account | Return |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 trend | $99,863 | −0.14% |