Developed markets outside the US (MSCI EAFE): 200-day moving average
Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.
Now
Close 11/06/2026101.89
200-day average103.35
50-day average104.65
Distance from 200-day−1.4 %
On this side sincebelow · 11/05/2026
50-day vs 200-daygolden cross
From the 1-year high−6.4 %
From the high since 2019−6.4 %
Change over 1 year+8.5 %
RSI (14 days)42
Price and moving averages, last two years
Price (EFA fund)50-day200-day
Golden and death crosses since 2019
| Date | Cross | Next 3 months | Next 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/17/2025 | golden cross | +4.0 % | +10.3 % |
| 12/12/2024 | death cross | +7.0 % | +9.9 % |
| 01/03/2024 | golden cross | +6.5 % | +8.3 % |
| 10/04/2023 | death cross | +10.3 % | +17.5 % |
| 01/06/2023 | golden cross | +5.5 % | +5.3 % |
| 12/31/2021 | death cross | −5.6 % | −22.1 % |
| 08/14/2020 | golden cross | +5.4 % | +18.6 % |
| 03/17/2020 | death cross | +23.5 % | +31.8 % |
| 10/25/2019 | golden cross | +2.5 % | −15.9 % |
The trend rule over the long history
Months above the average68 %
Next month after “above”, per year+8.2 %
Next month after “below”, per year+3.2 %
Switches per year1.8
Trend rule, per year+6.3 %
Buy and hold, per year+6.6 %
Trend rule, worst drop−24.5 %
Buy and hold, worst drop−55.9 %
What the 200-day moving average is
The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.
It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.
All indicators
This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.