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US real estate (REIT): 200-day moving average

Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.

Now

Close 11/06/202695.73
200-day average94.72
50-day average92.92
Distance from 200-day+1.1 %
On this side sinceabove · 11/02/2026
50-day vs 200-daydeath cross
From the 1-year high−5.2 %
From the high since 2019−17.5 %
Change over 1 year+7.7 %
RSI (14 days)60

Price and moving averages, last two years

78.7384.5590.3796.19102.012024-11-042025-11-062026-11-06
Price (VNQ fund)50-day200-day

Golden and death crosses since 2019

A golden cross is the day the 50-day average rises above the 200-day one; a death cross is the opposite. What the price did over the next three and six months:

DateCrossNext 3 monthsNext 6 months
10/15/2026death cross——
02/17/2026golden cross−0.5 %+2.2 %
01/22/2026death cross+5.7 %+11.6 %
01/21/2026golden cross+3.6 %+8.1 %
01/05/2026death cross+2.0 %+9.1 %
09/09/2025golden cross−2.8 %+1.0 %
02/19/2025death cross−2.5 %−1.5 %
01/04/2024golden cross−3.3 %−3.5 %
03/09/2022death cross−6.9 %−9.1 %
10/23/2020golden cross+8.3 %+22.0 %
03/19/2020death cross+29.4 %+30.6 %

The trend rule over the long history

Monthly data with dividends from 1972-11: hold the market while its month-end level is above the average of the last 10 months (the monthly version of the 200-day rule, as in Mebane Faber's 2007 study), otherwise hold cash. No costs or taxes. (1972-11 – 2026-09)

Months above the average74 %
Next month after “above”, per year+13.0 %
Next month after “below”, per year+4.7 %
Switches per year1.4
Trend rule, per year+10.7 %
Buy and hold, per year+10.8 %
Trend rule, worst drop−45.2 %
Buy and hold, worst drop−68.3 %

What the 200-day moving average is

The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.

It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.

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This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.