Gold: 200-day moving average
Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.
Now
Price and moving averages, last two years
Golden and death crosses since 2019
| Date | Cross | Next 3 months | Next 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | death cross | +3.9 % | — |
| 12/04/2023 | golden cross | +5.8 % | +15.9 % |
| 09/28/2023 | death cross | +10.5 % | +20.0 % |
| 01/13/2023 | golden cross | +3.8 % | +2.7 % |
| 07/06/2022 | death cross | −0.9 % | +6.5 % |
| 02/14/2022 | golden cross | −2.5 % | −5.3 % |
| 01/27/2022 | death cross | +5.6 % | −2.1 % |
| 12/07/2021 | golden cross | +11.4 % | +3.6 % |
| 08/06/2021 | death cross | +1.8 % | +2.6 % |
| 07/08/2021 | golden cross | −2.1 % | +0.2 % |
| 02/17/2021 | death cross | +5.2 % | +0.4 % |
The trend rule over the long history
What the 200-day moving average is
The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.
It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.
Gold trend following with the 200-day average
Hold gold only while it is rising: above its 200-day average in gold, below it in short-term bonds.
The 200-day moving average strategy on the S&P 500
Hold stocks while the index is above its average price of the last 200 days, and step aside when it falls below.
All indicators
This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.