US Treasury bonds, 20+ years: 200-day moving average

Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.

Now

Close 11/06/202681.92

200-day average84.47

50-day average80.38

Distance from 200-day−3.0 %

On this side sincebelow · 03/11/2026

50-day vs 200-daydeath cross

From the 1-year high−9.8 %

From the high since 2019−52.3 %

Change over 1 year−8.7 %

RSI (14 days)61

Price and moving averages, last two years

Price (TLT fund)50-day200-day

Golden and death crosses since 2019

A golden cross is the day the 50-day average rises above the 200-day one; a death cross is the opposite. What the price did over the next three and six months:

Date	Cross	Next 3 months	Next 6 months
03/20/2026	death cross	+0.3 %	−4.7 %
02/25/2026	golden cross	−5.1 %	−7.4 %
02/06/2026	death cross	−1.7 %	−6.3 %
10/02/2025	golden cross	−2.8 %	−3.2 %
11/29/2024	death cross	−3.5 %	−8.1 %
07/16/2024	golden cross	−0.4 %	−7.9 %
03/15/2024	death cross	+1.9 %	+9.0 %
02/08/2024	golden cross	−3.6 %	+2.4 %
06/23/2023	death cross	−11.5 %	−4.3 %
05/12/2023	golden cross	−8.7 %	−15.6 %
02/11/2022	death cross	−16.1 %	−16.5 %
08/19/2021	golden cross	−2.8 %	−9.1 %
11/10/2020	death cross	−4.0 %	−12.5 %

The trend rule over the long history

Monthly data with dividends from 1962-12: hold the market while its month-end level is above the average of the last 10 months (the monthly version of the 200-day rule, as in Mebane Faber's 2007 study), otherwise hold cash. No costs or taxes. (1962-12 – 2026-09)

Months above the average67 %

Next month after “above”, per year+6.6 %

Next month after “below”, per year+4.4 %

Switches per year1.8

Trend rule, per year+6.0 %

Buy and hold, per year+5.9 %

Trend rule, worst drop−25.0 %

Buy and hold, worst drop−45.8 %

What the 200-day moving average is

The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.

It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.

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This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.