Emerging markets: 200-day moving average

Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.

Now

Close 11/06/202659.33

200-day average63.94

50-day average65.43

Distance from 200-day−7.2 %

On this side sincebelow · 10/16/2026

50-day vs 200-daygolden cross

From the 1-year high−16.7 %

From the high since 2019−16.7 %

Change over 1 year+8.4 %

RSI (14 days)34

Price and moving averages, last two years

Price (EEM fund)50-day200-day

Golden and death crosses since 2019

A golden cross is the day the 50-day average rises above the 200-day one; a death cross is the opposite. What the price did over the next three and six months:

Date	Cross	Next 3 months	Next 6 months
05/14/2025	golden cross	+7.7 %	+20.0 %
04/21/2025	death cross	+17.9 %	+31.0 %
03/25/2025	golden cross	+7.4 %	+19.0 %
01/17/2025	death cross	−0.4 %	+17.4 %
01/11/2024	golden cross	+3.8 %	+12.7 %
09/29/2023	death cross	+6.0 %	+8.8 %
01/27/2023	golden cross	−7.5 %	−0.8 %
08/20/2021	death cross	+3.0 %	−1.6 %
07/29/2020	golden cross	+4.0 %	+23.8 %
03/19/2020	death cross	+28.3 %	+44.1 %
11/19/2019	golden cross	+0.3 %	−13.8 %

The trend rule over the long history

Monthly data with dividends from 1990-05: hold the market while its month-end level is above the average of the last 10 months (the monthly version of the 200-day rule, as in Mebane Faber's 2007 study), otherwise hold cash. No costs or taxes. (1990-05 – 2026-09)

Months above the average66 %

Next month after “above”, per year+14.9 %

Next month after “below”, per year−2.4 %

Switches per year1.6

Trend rule, per year+10.5 %

Buy and hold, per year+8.7 %

Trend rule, worst drop−30.2 %

Buy and hold, worst drop−61.2 %

What the 200-day moving average is

The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.

It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.

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This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.