Bitcoin: 200-day moving average
Closing prices of 11/08/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.
Now
Price and moving averages, last two years
Golden and death crosses since 2019
| Date | Cross | Next 3 months | Next 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2026 | golden cross | — | — |
| 11/16/2025 | death cross | −27.0 % | −17.8 % |
| 05/22/2025 | golden cross | +0.7 % | −22.4 % |
| 04/07/2025 | death cross | +36.7 % | +57.4 % |
| 10/28/2024 | golden cross | +46.0 % | +35.9 % |
| 08/10/2024 | death cross | +26.0 % | +58.3 % |
| 10/30/2023 | golden cross | +25.5 % | +85.0 % |
| 09/12/2023 | death cross | +60.5 % | +176.7 % |
| 02/07/2023 | golden cross | +18.9 % | +27.9 % |
| 01/14/2022 | death cross | −5.9 % | −51.7 % |
| 09/15/2021 | golden cross | +1.5 % | −14.6 % |
| 06/19/2021 | death cross | +35.6 % | +31.5 % |
| 05/21/2020 | golden cross | +30.8 % | +96.2 % |
| 03/25/2020 | death cross | +39.4 % | +53.4 % |
| 02/19/2020 | golden cross | −1.1 % | +22.1 % |
| 10/26/2019 | death cross | −9.5 % | −18.1 % |
What the 200-day moving average is
The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.
It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.
Crypto trend following with moving averages
Hold a coin only while it trades above its own average price: 50 days for the fast version, 100 days for the slow one.
A coin basket with a market filter: in crypto only while the market rises
Hold a basket of large coins in equal parts while the crypto market as a whole is rising, and sit in cash when it is not.
All indicators
This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.