US small companies (Russell 2000): 200-day moving average

Closing prices of 11/06/2026. Funds stand in for markets: their price moves with the market, so the position against the average is the same.

Now

Close 11/06/2026273.67

200-day average279.00

50-day average282.11

Distance from 200-day−1.9 %

On this side sincebelow · 11/05/2026

50-day vs 200-daygolden cross

From the 1-year high−10.3 %

From the high since 2019−10.3 %

Change over 1 year+13.9 %

RSI (14 days)43

Price and moving averages, last two years

Price (IWM fund)50-day200-day

Golden and death crosses since 2019

A golden cross is the day the 50-day average rises above the 200-day one; a death cross is the opposite. What the price did over the next three and six months:

Date	Cross	Next 3 months	Next 6 months
08/06/2025	golden cross	+9.4 %	+16.0 %
03/20/2025	death cross	+2.0 %	+18.5 %
01/02/2024	golden cross	+3.2 %	+1.2 %
10/13/2023	death cross	+12.1 %	+14.6 %
07/11/2023	golden cross	−8.3 %	+2.7 %
04/21/2023	death cross	+9.8 %	−6.3 %
01/27/2023	golden cross	−7.6 %	+4.8 %
01/19/2022	death cross	−1.0 %	−10.8 %
08/14/2020	golden cross	+8.2 %	+43.8 %
03/19/2020	death cross	+36.4 %	+48.0 %
11/11/2019	golden cross	+5.9 %	−22.7 %

The trend rule over the long history

Monthly data with dividends from 1927-05: hold the market while its month-end level is above the average of the last 10 months (the monthly version of the 200-day rule, as in Mebane Faber's 2007 study), otherwise hold cash. No costs or taxes. (1927-05 – 2026-09)

Months above the average70 %

Next month after “above”, per year+13.8 %

Next month after “below”, per year+8.2 %

Switches per year1.7

Trend rule, per year+10.6 %

Buy and hold, per year+12.1 %

Trend rule, worst drop−58.4 %

Buy and hold, worst drop−87.7 %

What the 200-day moving average is

The 200-day moving average is the average closing price of the last 200 trading days, about ten months. Many investors read a price above it as a rising market and a price below it as a falling one.

It does not predict: it only shows where the price has been. A rule built on it usually cuts the deepest losses but pays for that with many false switches when the market moves sideways.

All indicators

S&P 500 · Gold · Nasdaq 100 · Bitcoin · Ether · Developed markets outside the US (MSCI EAFE) · Emerging markets · US Treasury bonds, 20+ years · Silver · US real estate (REIT)

Put this card on your site →

This is market data, not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past behaviour does not predict future prices.