Commodity trend following: five funds
Gold, silver, oil, a broad commodity basket and agriculture: hold only the ones in an uptrend.
The rule
Split the account into equal parts, one per commodity fund. Hold a fund only while it is above its 200-day average; otherwise keep that part in safe bonds.
Why people use it
Commodities move in long cycles driven by supply shocks and inflation, and they often rise when stocks and bonds struggle. Holding only the rising ones avoids the long declines that commodities are known for.
Where it hurts
Commodity funds lose money over time from the cost of rolling futures, and trends break suddenly on news. In quiet years most of the account sits in bonds.
How our bot runs it
Five funds at 20% each: GLD (gold), SLV (silver), DBC (broad basket), USO (oil), DBA (agriculture). Once a month each fund is checked against its 200-day average; the share of a fund below it goes to BIL.
Live account
A virtual $100,000 account that follows this rule. Every trade is on the bot's page.
| Bot | Account | Return |
|---|---|---|
| Commodity trend | $99,960 | −0.04% |